NBA betting: Anthony Davis' extreme inconsistency has been good for bettors
On Saturday, 99% of bettors had the over on Anthony Davis' point total of 24.5. The over hit.
You'd think bettors who cashed those tickets would go right back on Davis' over. Instead, they're doing an old-school WWE heel turn.
The steel chair to Davis' back is that the under on his 25.5 points for Monday is the second-most popular prop bet at BetMGM for Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.
Why are bettors turning on Davis after he cashed an over? They're buying into a strange trend for Davis' scoring, which indicates he has a down game coming.
Anthony Davis has been inconsistent in playoffs
Davis, when healthy, is one of the NBA's best players. Like most superstars, Davis is a consistent producer.
Then what to make of Davis' postseason? He has been very good in some games, and scored less than 20 points in every other game. Here's his game-by-game scoring these playoffs: 22, 13, 31, 12, 31, 16, 30, 11, 25.
It's hard to know what to make of that. Davis scored more than 13 points in 50 of 56 games in the regular season. He has 13 or fewer in three of nine playoff games. It doesn't fit.
Either way, bettors know. They loaded up on Davis' over in Game 3 and got the late cover.
99% of bets were on Anthony Davis over 24.5 PTS @BetMGM...
This dunk put him at 25 PTS.
He checked out for the rest of the game 30 seconds later ✅pic.twitter.com/gPOELFLVBk
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 7, 2023
And now, they're rooting for the under in Game 4.
Will Davis have another down game?
Zig-zag betting is a fairly simple theory used in a playoff series that many think is entirely outdated. It is basically betting against whatever happened in the previous game. If a team wins a game in a series, bet on the other team to win and/or cover the next game. That's an approach that goes back many years.
Zig-zag betting on a player prop might be a new phenomenon.
Even Davis doesn't seem to have an explanation. In Game 1 against the Warriors he was awesome, with 30 points and 23 rebounds. Then in Game 2 he scored just 11 points.
"I took all the same shots I took in Game 1. I just missed them," Davis said, via NBA.com. "Elbow jumpers. Pocket passes to the floater. Same exact looks. Didn't shoot no shot that I didn't shoot in Game 1. Just missed them. That's all. We'll be better. I'll be better making those shots."
Then Davis was on in Game 3, scoring 25 and hitting the over for bettors.
Whatever the explanation, bettors are figuring Davis' peaks and valleys will continue. The Lakers are in trouble if it does.