NFL bad beat: Under bettors survived an intense sweat on Monday night

When the NFL schedule first came out, the Week 15 Monday night game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams looked like one of the better matchups of the entire season. Both teams were expected to be near the top of the NFC and compete for a Super Bowl.

However, things didn't go according to plan this season for either team. For a variety of reasons, both teams have come nowhere close to meeting expectations. The Rams entered with just four wins and the Packers were barely better, coming into the game with five victories. After losing on Monday night, the Rams were officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Yet, there is some intrigue. Baker Mayfield energized the football world with his performance last week. Many were excited to see him play for the Rams again after the show he put on against the Las Vegas Raiders last Thursday. On the other side, the Packers were coming off a bye and with Romeo Doubs active, Aaron Rodgers had his full complement of weapons for the first time in quite a while.

Despite that, oddsmakers were expecting a low-scoring game. It was extremely cold in Green Bay and both offenses have been below average this season. Mayfield was among the worst quarterbacks in the league in his early season performances with the Carolina Panthers while the Packers have rarely looked in sync. The total closed at a low 39.5 points at BetMGM.

If you took the under, you came out a winner as the Packers won the game by a score of 24-12. However, it was an extremely heavy sweat in the final minutes. If you bet the over, you had nothing go your way down the stretch and ended up on the losing side.

A scoreless fourth quarter

Late in the third quarter, Mayfield found Tyler Higbee for an 8-yard touchdown to cut into Green Bay's lead. Matt Gay missed the extra point following the touchdown, meaning the Packers had a 24-12 lead. The missed extra point was important because over bettors now needed a touchdown to cash their ticket instead of simply a field goal. The Rams also needed two touchdowns instead of a field goal, touchdown and two-point conversion.

Nevertheless, over bettors still had to feel they were in good shape. They needed just four points in the fourth quarter. Green Bay was moving the ball well all night while the Rams' offense showed signs of life with their first touchdown of the game.

Things started well on the quest for points. On the kickoff after the Rams' touchdown, Keisean Nixon ripped off a 52-yard return to set the Packers up in Los Angeles territory. A few plays later, Troy Hill was whistled for defensive pass interference, setting the Packers up at the 35. However, a first down run was stuffed, a second down pass fell incomplete, and the Rams sacked Rodgers on third down. A promising drive resulted in a punt.

On the Rams' next drive, Baker Mayfield threw an interception deep in his own territory. After securing the interception, Rasul Douglas decided to lateral the ball backwards and lose a few yards. Still, the Packers had the ball in field-goal range and were in good shape. Unfortunately for over bettors, Aaron Jones fumbled after Jalen Ramsey stood him up and ripped at the ball just inside the red zone. You could argue Jones' forward progress was stopped, but the officials didn't agree and another scoring opportunity went by the wayside.

The Rams had the ball again, and it looked like they might make this a game. Mayfield under-threw Tutu Atwell on a deep pass, but it resulted in a 40-yard gain via penalty. The Rams were set up in borderline field goal range, but Mayfield was sacked on first down putting Los Angeles behind the chains. Then, despite being down two scores and less than ten minutes remaining in the game, Sean McVay decided to punt the ball from the plus-side of midfield.

One last chance for over bettors

When the Packers got the ball back with 8:58 remaining in the game, nobody expected it to be the final possession of the contest.

Green Bay ran 15 plays and gained 85 yards on the drive, taking the final 8:58 off the clock. Over bettors needed them to get 86 yards.

The Packers crossed midfield with over seven minutes left. Despite the Rams having only one timeout, time shouldn't have been a factor. Of course, I wouldn't be writing this story if it didn't end up becoming a factor.

With just under four minutes left, Aaron Jones tore off a 14-yard gain on the ground, setting up a first-and-10 at the 12-yard line. After no gain on first down, Rodgers found Christian Watson on a crossing route on second down. Watson had one defender between him and the end zone, and he was barely tackled by his shoestrings, setting up a third-and-2 at the 4-yard line.

On third down, Rodgers saw something in the coverage and issued a hand signal to Watson. In hindsight, the signal represented Rodgers changing the play and it was a way of letting Watson know the ball was coming to him. Watson either didn't see or recognize the signal, so he was blocking for the run. Rodgers threw the ball to him and it harmlessly hit the ground. If Watson was paying attention, he likely walks into the end zone.

"You want to catch touchdowns, you run the right routes," Rodgers told ESPN's Lisa Salters after the game.

A field goal would have done over bettors no good, so they caught a break when the Packers decided to go for it on fourth down. On fourth-and-2 from the 4, Jones got the ball and burst up the middle for a gain of 3. He got the first down, but didn't get the touchdown.

Under two minutes remained in the game, and the Rams had just one timeout remaining. That meant victory formation for the Packers. As of Monday morning, 57% of bets were on the game to go over the total at BetMGM. Those 57% of bettors had to be cursing what they just watched.

Over bettors weren't the only ones to suffer a bad beat. Some of the most popular prop bets of the night came up short as a result of the final few plays as well.

Christian Watson's over/under for receiving yards was set at 47.5 yards. He finished with 46 yards. If he evades the shoestring tackle or picks up on Rodgers' hand signal, he gets a few more yards. Bettors also liked Watson to score a touchdown at anytime. He certainly had a chance down the stretch.

Aaron Rodgers to throw over 1.5 touchdown passes was another one of the more popular prop bets at BetMGM. Rodgers finished with just one touchdown pass.