NFL betting: Fade the Arizona Cardinals ATS this season
We are in the home stretch, about one month from a new NFL season. Wagering on NFL futures can certainly be lucrative if you pick your spots. However, most bettors don’t want to keep money tied up for months. Instead, use the preseason to look ahead for spots to back or fade a team during the regular season.
With a season win total of 4.5 games, it’s a no-brainer that the Arizona Cardinals may have a rough go at it this year. Instead of looking at total wins, I’m thinking ahead, looking to fade the Cards against the spread.
Fade the Cardinals ATS at home
Under head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals held a 34-31-2 ATS overall record, which is 52.3%. At home since 2018, Arizona was 16-24 ATS (40%), fourth worst in the league during that span. This includes a 4-4 ATS mark at home last year, with quarterback Kyler Murray (now injured) and receiver DeAndre Hopkins (now with Tennessee) on the roster.
For the 2023 season, with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and new defensive coordinator, the Cardinals are favored in… zero games. Yup, in an 18-week season, Arizona is projected to not be favored in a single game.
I love betting underdogs. However, I’m looking to fade the Cardinals ATS, even in an underdog role.
Cardinals home schedule
The Cardinals have a really tough home schedule. In seven home games, Arizona gets the Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Rams and 49ers — some of the best teams in the league. I’ll even include the Arthur Smith-led Falcons on this list of tough competition. Collectively, this bunch accounted for either having four teams inside the top half of scoring offenses, or three teams in the top half in opponent points per play.
Cardinals offensive outlook
Arizona gets this brutal home schedule with Murray out because of an ACL injury, and Hopkins gone. If Murray does return, not only will he be coming off injury but also a lousy 2022 campaign in which he ranked 23rd in success rate with a career-low 6.1 yards per attempt and just 14 touchdowns. If not Murray, then in comes Colt McCoy. As a Longhorn, I support McCoy. As a bettor, it’s not promising. The former Texas quarterback posted just one touchdown in four games. Rookie quarterback Clayton Tune of Houston could get a look but as a fifth-round draft pick, it’s an uninspiring thought.
Looking at the wide receiver room — A.J. Green is retired and TE Zach Ertz is likely to miss the start of the season. Between Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore, the duo missed 14 games because of injury. Durability is questionable on offense.
I don’t have hopes for the Cardinals, and neither do the sportsbooks. The defense also lost its top two ends in J.J. Watt (retirement) and Zach Allen (Broncos). Arizona does has 11 draft picks in 2024, including two first-rounders.
Betting the Cardinals in 2023
Rather than spend five months sweating an under 4.5 wins season-long-ticket, fade the Cardinals ATS at home. Avoid putting Arizona on a two-team, six-point teaser and look to opponent offensive player props with the defense also suspect.
Also keep an eye out for opponent fourth-quarter scoring. The Cardinals were dead last in the league in points allowed in the final quarter of games, giving up an average of 14 points per contest. That could make for good live betting opportunities if that trend or something similar continues.
