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Week 10 of the NFL season is here. Things get underway on Thursday when the Miami Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens. It's definitely not the sexiest matchup of the year, but it'll work to get things going on another weekend of football. This prime-time spot offers Lamar Jackson an opportunity to solidify his MVP resume in front of the country. Coming off another come-from-behind victory, Jackson is currently +1100 to win MVP. What does the betting public think of Thursday night's game?
Nearly 80% of bets are on Baltimore
What has gone wrong for Miami this season? The Dolphins just barely missed the playoffs last season and had 10 wins. They had two first-round picks and four picks in the top 42 selections of the draft. It was reasonable to expect them to take another step forward.
Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. Miami has just two wins, one of which came in Week 1. The Dolphins then went on a seven-game losing streak before beating the lowly Houston Texans last weekend in a game where the Dolphins committed five turnovers. In Week 10, the Dolphins are a 7.5-point home underdog against the Ravens.
Despite laying over a touchdown on the road, 79% of the bets for this game are backing the Ravens to cover the spread. This figure is probably inflated due to the uncertainty surrounding who will start at quarterback for Miami. Tua Tagovalioa is dealing with a finger injury and the Dolphins might need to start Jacoby Brissett again.
The Ravens have a 6-2 record, but it's been far from smooth sailing for them this season. They've needed second-half comebacks to knock off the Chiefs, Colts and Vikings. They also struggled mightily with Detroit and needed a heroic kick from Justin Tucker to win that game. This team is certainly very good, but it hasn't been easy with them this season.
Big money on the under
If you don't want to mess with the inflated spread, you might turn to the total in this game. The total for this game currently sits at 47 points at BetMGM. Eighty-nine percent of the betting handle is on this game to go under 47 points.
I'd probably wait to see who plays quarterback for the Dolphins before picking a side here. Tua Tagovailoa gets a lot of hate, but there's no denying that the ceiling of the Dolphins' offense is a lot higher with him under center.
Both teams have reputations as decent defensive teams, but that hasn't really been the case this season. Both teams are allowing over 7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks them outside the top 20 of the league. The Dolphins rank 27th in total defense, while the Ravens rank 21st. Miami ranks 25th in defensive DVOA while Baltimore ranks 26th.
The stats suggest both teams are deficient on defense, but the money in the betting market is pointing towards a low-scoring game. If the Dolphins are without Tagovailoa, an under feels more likely.
Popular props to bet
Another prime-time game that isn't the sexiest on paper, but there's always value in the prop market at BetMGM. Which three props are receiving the most action at BetMGM?
Lamar Jackson is +800 to score the first touchdown on Thursday night. Jackson has been running the ball efficiently, averaging 75 yards per game on the ground. However, Jackson has just two rushing touchdowns on the season. Both of those came in the same game back in Week 2 against Kansas City. Is this a conscious change, or is he due for positive regression?
Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin is +180 to score a touchdown at anytime on Thursday night. Gaskin has regained full control of the Dolphins' workload over the past three weeks, averaging 20 touches per game in that timeframe. He has two touchdowns in his last four games after recording no touchdowns in his first four.
The Ravens' passing attack has been greatly improved this season, and Marquise Brown is a big part of that. Brown has six touchdowns in eight games, and he's on pace to shatter his career-high of eight touchdowns. Hollywood Brown is currently +600 to score multiple touchdowns on Thursday night. Brown has 26 targets over his last two games and he already has a game this season where he scored multiple touchdowns.