NFL betting: Patrick Mahomes opens as betting favorite to win Super Bowl MVP

The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with six games spread out between Saturday and Monday. While the Super Bowl is still over five weeks away, it's not too early to bet on who you think will win the big game. It's also not too early to bet on who you think will take home Super Bowl MVP honors.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl after earning a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. As a result, Patrick Mahomes has opened as the betting favorite to win Super Bowl MVP at +375.

If you choose to bet the Super Bowl MVP now, you lock in better odds. Of course, there's the risk that the player you bet on doesn't even make the Super Bowl. Take Mahomes, for example. If the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, Mahomes will be an odds-on favorite to win MVP. If you wait until the Super Bowl to bet, instead of getting +375 odds that are available now, you would probably have to lay something like -140 with Mahomes. By waiting to bet, you take away the risk of betting a player who isn't even playing in the game. Everyone's risk tolerance is different.

Current Super Bowl MVP favorites

Only once in the history of the Super Bowl has the MVP winner not been a member of the team that won the game. Therefore, the first step toward handicapping a Super Bowl MVP is deciding which teams have legitimate chances to win it all. That's obviously reflected in the odds. Few people would consider Brock Purdy a better quarterback than Justin Herbert, but since the San Francisco 49ers have much better odds to win the Super Bowl than the Los Angeles Chargers, Purdy's odds to win Super Bowl MVP are better than Herbert's.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 07: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of the game at Allegiant Stadium on January 07, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Getty Images)
Patrick Mahomes opens as the betting favorite to win NFL Super Bowl MVP. (Chris Unger/Getty Images)

Here are top 30 favorites to win Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM ahead of the playoffs:

  1. Patrick Mahomes (+375)

  2. Josh Allen (+500)

  3. Jalen Hurts (+650)

  4. Joe Burrow (+900)

  5. Brock Purdy (+900)

  6. Christian McCaffrey (14-to-1)

  7. Dak Prescott (16-to-1)

  8. Justin Herbert (25-to-1)

  9. Travis Kelce (28-to-1)

  10. Devin Singletary (28-to-1)

  11. Tom Brady (30-to-1)

  12. Stefon Diggs (30-to-1)

  13. Deebo Samuel (30-to-1)

  14. Lamar Jackson (40-to-1)

  15. Kirk Cousins (40-to-1)

  16. Nick Bosa (50-to-1)

  17. Trevor Lawrence (50-to-1)

  18. Ja'Marr Chase (50-to-1)

  19. A.J. Brown (50-to-1)

  20. Tua Tagovailoa (66-to-1)

  21. Daniel Jones (66-to-1)

  22. Devonta Smith (66-to-1)

  23. Austin Ekeler (80-to-1)

  24. Saquon Barkley (80-to-1)

  25. Geno Smith (80-to-1)

  26. George Kittle (80-to-1)

  27. Justin Jefferson (100-to-1)

  28. Ceedee Lamb (100-to-1)

  29. Jerick McKinnon (100-to-1)

  30. Micah Parsons (125-to-1)

History of the Super Bowl MVP

Cooper Kupp won the Super Bowl MVP last season after catching eight passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. One of those touchdowns was the winning score with 1:25 left on the clock. Kupp became the eighth wide receiver to win the award, which is the most of any non-quarterback position. Prior to Kupp, Julian Edelman was the most recent receiver to win the award back in 2019. Two of the last four winners have been wide receivers.

Of course, quarterbacks rule the day. Of 57 Super Bowl MVPs, 31 have been awarded to quarterbacks. Tom Brady has won the award five times, making him the all-time leader in Super Bowl MVPs. Brady is 30-to-1 to win it this year. Quarterbacks make up the top five favorites on the current odds leaderboard.

A running back has won the award seven times, which makes it the third-most common position to win the award. However, a running back hasn't won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998 for the Denver Broncos. Christian McCaffrey at 14-to-1 might seem like an appealing bet, but recent history is not on his side.

Ten defensive players have won the award, the most recent being Von Miller in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Denver Broncos. Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers is the only defensive player with odds better than 125-to-1. Bosa is 50-to-1 to win the award.