NFL betting recap: Dallas Cowboys use late magic to beat Eagles and cover the spread

The Week 16 meeting between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles had been anticipated by NFL fans for weeks. However, in recent weeks it lost some of its luster. The Cowboys lost to Jacksonville in Week 15, making winning the division a rather unrealistic goal for them. Earlier in the week, it was announced Jalen Hurts was dealing with a shoulder injury and wouldn't play against Dallas.

With all of that being said, it was still a rivalry game between two of the top teams in the NFC. It was one of just two late afternoon games on Christmas Eve, meaning it had a pretty exclusive window. People wanted to see how the Eagles looked without Hurts so they could gauge how much credit Hurts deserves for this Eagles' success. NFL fans also wanted to see how Dallas would respond following two subpar performances.

Entering the game, we saw some wild line movement. The Cowboys opened as 1-point home favorites over Philadelphia early in the week. When the Hurts' injury news broke, Dallas ballooned out to a 6-point favorite. However, there was strong buyback on the Eagles. By kickoff, Dallas closed as a 4-point favorite.

The game delivered on the hype. It was a scary start for the Cowboys. Josh Sweat got his hands up and intercepted Dak Prescott, returning the pick for a 42-yard touchdown. Philadelphia was out to an early 10-0 lead. However, Dallas answered with an Ezekiel Elliott touchdown. On Philadelphia's next possession, the Cowboys' defense intercepted Gardner Minshew. That turnover was turned into a touchdown after Prescott found CeeDee Lamb from 36 yards out. The back-and-forth affair continued through the first half as the Eagles entered the locker room with a 20-17 lead.

Dallas got the ball to begin the second half, but it went three-and-out on its first possession. On their first drive of the second half, the Eagles went 77 yards on 10 plays. The drive culminated with Minshew finding DeVonta Smith for a touchdown on fourth-and-3 from the 14-yard line. Suddenly, it looked like the Eagles might roll to an outright victory on the road.

However, Dallas evened the game before the end of the third quarter, thanks to a Brett Maher field goal and Michael Gallup touchdown. The Eagles wouldn't go away though, as Minshew led another long drive, going 75 yards on 13 plays, eating up over seven minutes of the clock. Minshew found Smith again to give the Eagles a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter.

The Cowboys got the ball back with under 10 minutes left. After a nice gain on the first play of the drive to Jake Ferguson, Prescott was sacked on back-to-back plays. Suddenly, the Cowboys faced a third-and-30. That set up the play of the game as Prescott found newly signed T.Y. Hilton for a 52-yard gain.

A few plays later, Prescott found Lamb for another touchdown to even the game with under six minutes left. Now, the Cowboys' defense needed to make a play. The Eagles were moving the ball, getting over midfield and into Dallas' territory. Facing a third-and-4 from Dallas' 46-yard line, Minshew attempted to hit Quez Watkins on a slant route. However, DaRon Bland read the route and ripped the ball away for an interception.

The Cowboys took advantage of that interception and took the lead when Maher kicked a 48-yard field goal with 2:24 remaining. However, the Cowboys' lead was just three points. That wasn't enough for bettors who laid four points with the Cowboys. Dallas' backers would need some kind of lucky break or overtime to cover the spread.

Philadelphia got the ball back with a chance to go on a game-winning or game-tying drive. Those plans came to an abrupt halt when on the first play of the drive, Miles Sanders fumbled. The Eagles used their timeouts and forced a field goal. Maher connected from 26 yards to give the Cowboys a six-point lead, which was enough for their bettors. However, the defense still had to come up big.

The Eagles moved the ball into the red zone. Fortunately for Cowboys bettors, Minshew threw four straight incomplete passes from the 19-yard line and the Eagles turned the ball over on downs. Dallas kneeled out the final few seconds and celebrated Christmas with a 40-34 victory.

Overall, just 36% of bets were on the Cowboys to cover as 4-point favorites. A vast majority of bettors sided with the Eagles getting points on the road. Philadelphia had a seven-point lead with under six minutes left. Bettors who had them with the points must have been feeling good. However, a third-and-30 conversion and two late turnovers turned Philadelphia into the losing side. For Cowboys bettors, it was an early Christmas present.

Lions come crashing down to Earth

It was all setting up nicely for the Detroit Lions. They were just a half-game out of a playoff spot and had three winnable games to finish the season. Oddsmakers basically had it at a coin-flip as to whether they'd make the playoffs.

Entering the game, Detroit was the winner of six of its last seven games. For bettors, the Lions had covered the spread in seven consecutive games. All of the momentum was with Detroit as it pushed toward the playoffs.

However, Detroit was just a 2.5-point road favorite against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are still alive for the playoffs due to their extremely weak division, but it's hard to consider them a good team. The line seemed low. Bettors lined up to lay less than a field goal with one of the hottest teams in the league. At BetMGM, 85% of the bets were backing the Lions to cover the spread.

Carolina winning and/or covering was the biggest need of Christmas Eve for the sportsbooks. We know how that usually ends.

The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the opening quarter, but that was the only competitive part of the game. The Panthers scored 24 unanswered points to open up a 31-7 lead early in the third quarter. Some late meaningless touchdowns from Detroit made the game look a little closer, but when all was said and done, the Panthers earned the comfortable 37-23 victory.

It was a costly loss for the Lions. Their playoff odds are down to just 24% now, according to FiveThirtyEight. It was also a costly loss for bettors as Detroit was the most popular bet of the weekend at BetMGM. Detroit's seven-game streak of covering the spread came to an end at the worst time for a lot of bettors.

Lowest total since 2008? No problem

The Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints met on Christmas Eve. It wasn't the sexiest game on the schedule as neither team looks likely to be headed to the playoffs. However, it was notable from a betting perspective. The game closed with a total of just 32 points, the lowest in an NFL game since 2008.

Neither team's offense is very good, especially with Deshaun Watson still working his way back into game shape after almost two seasons off. However, the main reason for the extremely low total was the weather. The temperature was near 10 degrees. Winds were over 30 mph. Those two combined to make it feel like -20 degrees on the field.

After a scoreless first quarter, the Browns took a 10-0 lead in the second quarter, thanks to a Cade York field goal and Watson rushing touchdown. The Saints got on the board before halftime with a Will Lutz field goal.

Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill both scored rushing touchdowns in the third quarter to give the Saints a 17-10 lead. At that point, it looked like the game might go flying over the total. However, there was no scoring in the fourth quarter and the under ended up cashing for bettors.

The Saints threw the ball just 15 times and Andy Dalton had just eight completions for 92 yards. On the other side, Deshaun Watson was asked to throw the ball 31 times for some reason. He completed just 15 of those passes for 135 yards. It was extremely challenging to throw the ball in those conditions, making it hard to sustain drives and score points. That's why despite the total being the lowest total we've seen in almost 15 years, the under was still the right side.

Big Steelers bet cashes

Some people spice up their Christmas Eve by adding some rum to their eggnog. For others, a $550,000 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers will do the trick.

One bettor at BetMGM risked $550,000 on the Steelers to cover as 2.5-point home favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. The bet would return a profit of $500,000. It was sure to be an emotional night in Pittsburgh after the passing of Franco Harris last week. The team honored him during halftime, and the present-day Steelers wanted to honor him with a win to keep their season alive.

Things started off poorly for the Steelers, as Derek Carr and the Raiders put up seven on their opening drive with a touchdown to Hunter Renfrow. That was the only touchdown of the first half as both teams kicked field goals. Las Vegas entered the locker room with a 10-3 lead.

However, this Raiders team is no stranger to blowing leads in fascinating ways. Kenny Pickett threw an interception to begin the third quarter, but instead of taking advantage, Carr immediately returned the ball to Pittsburgh with an interception of his own. On fourth-and-4, Mike Tomlin decided to attempt a 52-yard field goal that wasn't particularly close.

On Las Vegas' next drive, Carr threw another interception to Minkah Fitzpatrick. The two teams exchanged punts to end a scoreless third quarter. With just under 10 minutes remaining, Chris Boswell kicked a 40-yard field goal to cut Las Vegas' lead to 10-6.

After the Steelers' defense forced two punts from Las Vegas, the Steelers' offense went on their best drive of the game. Pickett got the ball back with under three minutes remaining, but time wasn't an issue. He led a 10-play, 76-yard drive that culminated with him finding George Pickens for a 14-yard touchdown with 46 seconds remaining. For the first time in the game, the Steelers had the lead and most importantly, they were covering the short 2.5-point spread.

Carr still had 46 seconds and three timeouts to try and get into field-goal range to force overtime. However, he quickly threw an interception and the Steelers ran out the clock. Final score: Pittsburgh 13, Las Vegas 10.

It was a hell of a sweat for the bettor who risked $550,000 on the Steelers. Despite the fact that Pittsburgh was covering for just 46 seconds the entire night, the bettor cashed their ticket and took home a great Christmas present.

Don't stop fading Brady and the Bucs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the most disappointing teams in football despite the fact that they currently lead the NFC South and would host a playoff game if the season ended today. With Tom Brady under center, it's been a common theme and thought all season long that they would figure things out eventually and be a tough out in the playoffs.

If you've been buying into the narrative of the Buccaneers eventually finding themselves, you're probably down quite a bit of cash.

Tampa Bay was a 7.5-point road favorite on Sunday night against the Arizona Cardinals. With Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy out due to injury, Trace McSorley got the start at quarterback for Arizona. It was the first NFL start for the former Penn State quarterback.

It was hard to envision a world where the Cardinals were going to score many points. Defensively, entering the week, no team gave up more points per game than Arizona. As a result, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were a popular bet. At BetMGM, 76% of the money was backing Tampa Bay to cover the spread.

It was a tough game to watch. The teams entered halftime tied at six after two field goals a piece. The third quarter was scoreless. In the back of our minds, we all anticipated the Buccaneers to have one drive and that drive would be enough to win them the game.

However, Arizona had different plans. A Matt Prater field goal gave Arizona the lead. James Conner then scored a touchdown to give the Cardinals a 10-point lead. Suddenly, it looked like Tampa Bay might lose this pivotal game outright.

After that, the Buccaneers offense went into no-huddle and magically things clicked. Brady found Rachaad White to cut the lead to three. After a botched pitch by the Cardinals on a key third down, the Buccaneers recovered the fumble near midfield. A few plays later, Ryan Succop tied the game with a 42-yard field goal.

The game went to overtime, and at that point, all Buccaneers bets were losers. There was no way to cover 7.5 points in overtime. Arizona got the ball first but punted it back to Tampa Bay. Brady got the Bucs into field goal range, and Succop kicked the game winner.

Sure, it was a comeback victory for the Buccaneers, but they continue to be far from impressive. Tampa Bay is now 3-11-1 against the spread this season, far and away the worst mark in the league. Every other team in the league has covered the spread at least five times this season.

If you've bet $100 on Buccaneers opponents to cover the spread in every game this season, you'd be up $770. Maybe Tampa Bay will eventually somehow figure this out. At this point, that seems unlikely. However, there's still money to be made betting against the Bucs on a consistent basis.