NFL odds, betting: Here are three totals to target for Week 16
Welcome to the weather portion of the NFL schedule, where freezing temperatures and heavy wind gusts become the major players in our handicaps. The forecast shows up to seven games that could fall below freezing this week, but the heavy wind gusts, not the snow, attract the type of money that moves the market and sends totals free-falling into the 30s. Cleveland and Chicago expect massive winds from 25-40 mph on game day. If you beat the market and hammered the under in either game, you will likely hold a valuable ticket. So rather than force a bet on a stale number, I'm avoiding the weather the best I can for this week's totals. We are on a 5-0 run over the last two weeks, so here are three more to see if we can extend the streak.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Over 48)
Minnesota's miraculous comeback might have masked the second-most shocking part of that game. The Colts scored how many points? Thirty-six? The scoring output for the Colts marked their season high and was only the third time they scored more than 20 in a single game. The Vikings' defense continues to spiral to new lows as it remains dead last in total yards allowed and has given up just under 33 points per game in the previous six weeks.
The Giants' offense isn't a juggernaut by any means, but we just learned that even the most inept offenses are good for 25-30 points against Minnesota. Considering this one is played indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium, both teams should go up and down the field. The Vikings have hit four straight overs, and I'm betting the streak hits five.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (Over 49.5)
The Dolphins just finished a brutal stretch in which five of their last seven games were on the road, including their last three. Now they come back home to the Florida sunshine to take on a Packers team that has figured things out offensively. Since WR Christian Watson emerged as Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, Green Bay is eighth in the league in EPA per play, averaging 25 points per game. The Packers should be able to score in that range against Miami's 26th-ranked scoring defense.
I like the Dolphins to get out to a big lead at home and set the stage for a shootout. Neither of these defenses is better than league average, and the Packers are traveling off a big win on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins will be able to run the ball with enough success to keep the Green Bay pass rush off-balance, giving Tua Tagovailoa enough time to get the ball in the hands of the most explosive WR tandem in the league. I see this closer to 28-24, making it easy to fire on the over.
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (Under 47)
OK, it's probably not a great idea to expect every game without crazy weather to go over the total. However, this number at 47 feels like an overreaction to the Colts' defensive performance last week. The Colts defense was really bad in the second half, but I don't want to put too much weight on a game in which Indianapolis held a 33-point lead. The Colts are still seventh in the league in EPA per play allowed since Week 8, and I am willing to bet they give maximum effort for all four quarters this week.
The Colts' offense will still have success running the football even with Jonathan Taylor out, but as I previously mentioned, they hardly ever score into the 20s. Penciling in the Colts for 17 puts L.A. on the hook for most of the heavy lifting on this total. Expecting 30-plus points from the Chargers is a very big ask, considering they only hit that mark twice and average 22.3 points per game. PFF's Arjun Menon detailed how Justin Herbert has struggled this season against Cover 3, the primary scheme run by Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. That's enough to get me involved in the under and fade both these offenses facing tough situational spots.
Stats provided by PFF, Rbsdm (based on 90-10 W.P.), Teamrankings, Football Outsiders.
