NFL odds, betting: Here's how to find value on the Eagles on Monday night
"Monday Night Football" finishes Week 10 with an NFC East matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. The Eagles look to complete the season sweep after handing the Commanders a 24-8 loss in Washington in Week 3. Philadelphia covered easily as a 5.5-point road favorite after jumping out to an early 24-0 halftime lead. Fast forward seven weeks and the Eagles are now 11-point favorites at BetMGM.
There are plenty of reasons why the Eagles are getting much more respect in the betting market this time around. At 8-0, Philadelphia remains the league's only unbeaten team and has rewarded bettors with a profitable 5-3 ATS record. Plus, there is always an extra level of intensity when you are playing a prime-time game in front of your home crowd. It's a spot where the Eagles beat the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings comfortably, handing them their only loss of the season. The Vikings have gone on to win seven straight games, including Sunday's thrilling 33-30 overtime win over Bills.
However, this week marks Philly's third straight game as a double-digit favorite, a role where the rest of the NFL has struggled (3-8 ATS). From a betting perspective, the Eagles split their last two, covering with a 22-point victory over Pittsburgh before coming up two points shy as 14-point favorites last Thursday night in Houston. Despite the success of underdogs of 10 or more, I don't show any value with the Commanders. The Eagles should overwhelm Washington in the trenches again, but 11 points is a big ask for a game lined with a total of 43.5. So rather than lay the heavy chalk, I decided to look at two alternate ways to attack the game.
Halftime/Final — Eagles/Eagles (-190)
The Eagles' massive success in second quarters this season has made them a popular first-half wager among bettors. Their average first-half point differential of 12 is No.1 in the NFL. Philadelphia covered the first-half line in its first seven games before the streak finally snapped last week in Houston. You can currently bet the Eagles at -7 on the first-half spread on BetMGM. Even though they outscored the Commanders by 24 in the first half of their previous meeting, 7 is a key number and pretty significant for this type of wager. Therefore, I am more comfortable betting them to lead at halftime and come away with the win.
We know at this point in the season, justified or not, the market has never been higher on the Eagles. Since we are admittedly buying on a team at its highest point, the halftime/final bet allows us to play to Philadelphia's strengths without needing them to cover a possibly inflated number. Washington has been a notoriously slow starter, trailing at halftime in 67% of its games. It's an area the change at quarterback failed to improve, as the Commanders are only 1-2 to the first-half moneyline with Taylor Heinicke under center. It's hard to imagine them getting off to a fast start in the loud and hostile environment that awaits in Philadelphia.
The second component of the bet only requires the Eagles to win the game, which is a likely outcome. All four Commanders' wins have come against teams with a losing record, and they are 0-4 S/U against teams with a winning record. The Eagles' defense annihilated Washington upfront in the previous meeting, registering nine sacks and holding Antionio Gibson to 3.2 yards per rush. Since Heinicke took over the offense, Washington ranks 26th in overall success rate and only 18th on the ground. Heinecke can be a gamer, but down to down, this offense hasn't changed much since the Eagles front feasted on it in Week 3.
Washington still doesn't have the horses in the secondary to hold down the Eagles' wideouts. Per Football Outsiders, the Commanders allow the sixth-most yards per game to opponents' WR1s and the fourth-most to their WR2s. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith racked up 13 receptions for 254 yards the last time they met, and the Eagles' offensive chemistry has only improved since.
I like the Eagles to cruise to a convincing win at home, and this bet gets us away from laying the dreaded double-digit point spread in a divisional game. I understand the -190 odds are a little hard to swallow, but considering the implied probability (65%), it's a strong bet.
If you are looking for a bet closer to plus money, a one-game parlay with Eagles moneyline, Jalen Hurts over 199.5 yards passing, and Brown over 59.5 yards receiving returns +115. Hurts has eclipsed the 200-yard mark in seven of eight games, while Brown has topped 60 yards or more in six.
Stats provided by teamrankings, rbsdm (WP 9-10), footballoutsiders.
