NFL odds, betting: Let's fade Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady with our contest picks

I’m in a NFL contest submitting five ATS picks each week. Through 12 weeks, those picks are 29-31. Picking a single winner can be tough, much less picking five, but it’s a good challenge. The lines are set spreads released each Wednesday and selections are submitted Friday night. In an effort to bounce back, I’m looking at some ugly underdogs that look too easy to fade.

Here are the five ATS contest picks for Week 13 in the NFL.

Patriots +3.5 vs. Bills

New England quarterback Mac Jones had his best showing of the season in Week 12. Jones completed 72% of his passes with two touchdowns, had zero interceptions but was sacked three times. Granted, it was against a Vikings secondary ranked worst in the league, but I’m a big believer in confidence. Jones has built some confidence heading into a Thursday night matchup against the Bills without their best linebacker in Von Miller. That alone is a huge benefit to the Patriots' offense.

The Bills' defense allowed productive days from Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett. Heck, even Zach Wilson had the best game of his less-than-mediocre season against the Bills. I’ll gladly back the Patriots catching points with the second-best pass rush in the league, a top-10 defense and a stellar coach in Bill Belichick at home.

Broncos +8 at Ravens

Denver is 3-8 ATS this season. However, eight points is also the biggest spread the Broncos have been as an underdog, and they previously covered their biggest spread against the Chargers as 4-point underdogs. In my most professional analyst opinion, Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson kind of stinks, with only eight touchdowns to five interceptions, among other less-than-ideal stats.

However, this is more of a play against Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-7 ATS as favorites of three points or more. It doesn’t matter how good a team plays for three quarters if that team can’t close out a game. That’s the problem with Baltimore. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in points allowed in the fourth quarter, and it has cost the team wins, as we saw last week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville was down 19-10 early in the fourth quarter, ultimately fighting back to win 28-27.

Titans +5 at Eagles

I like what I’ve been seeing from the Titans' offense. RB Derrick Henry hasn't been stellar, rushing for less than 100 rushing yards in three straight games. However, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is excellent and knows how to adjust, and we’ve seen two things adjusted on offense. For one, Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown for at least 255 yards in three straight games, a first this season. Two, Henry has been utilized more in the passing game, with at least 45 receiving yards in back-to-back games.

The Eagles' defense is suspect. Philadelphia allowed the Commanders to gain 330 yards of total offense, allowed the Colts to complete 72% of their passes and allowed the Packers 8.4 yards per pass.

Texans +7 vs. Browns

Houston is 4-6-1 ATS, but 4-2 ATS as underdogs of seven points or more. The Texans' offense tends to perform better at home. Quarterback Kyle Allen is expected to start again, and RB Dameon Pierce logged his only two 100-yard rushing days in his home stadium, including 139 yards against the Eagles last month.

Cleveland's defense is 25th in explosive rushing yardage allowed per game. On the road, the Browns' rushing defense allowed 202 rushing yards to Atlanta, 160 to Baltimore and 195 to Miami. The Dolphins are 28th in the league in rushing, and the Browns let Miami RB Jeff Wilson Jr. go off for 119 yards on 17 carries.

Saints +3.5 at Bucs

The Saints are 0-5 ATS on the road. The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS at home. Something's gotta give. I’m backing the Saints' defense, which is ranked No. 7 against the pass. The Saints historically have given Brady fits. In six games against New Orleans with the Bucs, Brady has completed 58% of his passes with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. Since Week 7, the Saints have allowed just five total touchdown passes, while limiting opposing quarterbacks to 6.2 yards per pass, good for second best in the NFL.