NFL odds: Who will win Defensive Player of the Year? Here are 3 early bets to consider

Offense wins games, but defense wins championships. I wouldn’t wager that this old adage holds up during the Patrick Mahomes’ era, but it still rings true for every team that aspires to dethrone the Chiefs.

If you look at the two teams that came the closest, the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals, both defenses played a significant role in their postseason success. The San Francisco 49ers were also a popular Super Bowl pick, on the back of a pass rush anchored by the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa. The 49ers edge rusher took home the award after compiling 18.5 sacks for the league’s best scoring defense.

That’s the level of high-end production it takes to beat out a field filled with monsters like Aaron Donald, T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. Looking ahead to betting the award this season, there are a few important notes to consider. Don’t cross Nick Bosa off your list just because he won last year. Voter fatigue isn’t really a factor. Both Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt won three out of four years between the years of 2012-2020. Also, you want to target pass rushers. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is the only non-pass rusher in the last nine years to win the award (2019), and every single vote over the past two years went to players that get after the quarterback. It’s not a coincidence that if you scroll down the odds board at BetMGM, 14 of the first 15 players are pass rushers.

I put together three bets with odds ranging from +700 to +4000, allowing us to attack the market from different tiers. I approached the Offensive Player of the Year market in a similar way last week. It’s a good exercise to help visualize the value of each grouping to determine if the odds are aligned with the level of risk. Keep in mind, this is a very competitive award reserved for the elite players at their position. For that reason, we will start with the shortest odds and work our way to the long shot.

Defensive Player of the Year

Best Bet: Myles Garrett +700

Myles Garrett has been a menace since he entered the league in 2017. He has been incredibly consistent despite playing through some unstable years in Cleveland. The former No. 1 overall pick has compiled double-digit sacks in each of the past five years.

Last season was his second straight year finishing with 16 sacks (2.5 behind 2022 DPOY Nick Bosa). The problem with Garrett’s case for the award has always been more about his team than his individual performance. The Browns defense regressed last season, grading out at 25th on Pro Football Focus. If Garrett wants a shot at the award, Cleveland’s defense doesn’t have to be on the level of the 2022 49ers, but there has to be significant improvement.

I expect to see it with the hiring for former Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Garrett got some serious help on the defensive line with newly acquired defensive end Za'Darius Smith bookending the other side of the pass rush. The Browns defense should also be on the field less, assuming we see a more cohesive offense in Watson’s second year with the team. All these factors point to Garrett playing in a much better environment than last season, giving him every opportunity to push into the 18-20 sack range, and earn him strong consideration for the award.

Haason Reddick +2500

Nobody sacked the quarterback more than the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. After coming over from the Carolina Panthers, Reddick was a perfect fit for a defense that terrorized opposing offenses for 70 sacks, while finishing No. 1 in pass EPA allowed. Reddick was responsible for 19.5 sacks when combining his regular season (16) and postseason (3.5) tallies, and he was noticeably more comfortable in his new home as the season progressed. I see no reason why he won’t continue on the same trajectory under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai.

The Eagles have both their starting cornerbacks returning, and added Georgia DT Jalen Carter in the draft to replace the loss of Javon Hargrave. Reddick should feast again on the NFC East, which has at least two teams (New York Giants and Washington Commanders) that finished in the bottom seven of the league in sacks allowed per dropback.

Reddick checks all the boxes for the award. He has proven production on a contending team in a major market. Philadelphia has the shortest odds among all NFL teams to win their conference (+260), and only four teams have more prime-time games scheduled than Philly. Reddick should get plenty of opportunities to make his case in the national spotlight. That’s all you can ask for at 25 to 1.

Jaelen Phillips +4000

I was surprised how appealing some of the players were in this range of the odds board. Whether any of these hidden gems will hit as long shots is a more difficult question, but I think the Dolphins' third-year pass rusher is certainly worth a look.

Phillips made a massive leap in his second year in the league. His pass rush win percentage spiked from 11.2 to 17.6, and he finished with PFF’s fifth-highest pass rush grade. Only Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa and Haason Reddick graded out better than the Dolphins edge rusher. That’s pretty elite company for your second season in the league.

We could be looking at the perfect storm where everything lines up for a massive breakout under the tutelage of Vic Fangio, one of the league’s most respected defensive coordinators. The Dolphins secondary got a boost with Jalen Ramsey, and Miami has the talent to garner a lot of attention in 2023. I may be a year too soon, but I’d rather take a shot now than be a year too late.