NFL player props: Mike Tomlin is weirdly the best prop bet in Cleveland
Tonight's matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Amazon Prime shares many similarities with the streaming service's new Lord of the Rings show: an elf will be prominently featured, everyone is chasing a ring and Jeff Bezos paid a yachtload of money for the rights. Here are three props from BetMGM that I have my Great Eye on this evening:
Pat Freiermuth over 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Steelers tight end has been Mitch Trubisky's safety blanket through two games, commanding 17 targets for a 23.9% target share. Cleveland is surrendering 47 yards per game to the position and that number would be even higher if the Jets' Tyler Conklin hadn't dropped some wide-open passes last week. Freiermuth should get plenty of looks from Trubisky tonight, the only question is the accuracy of those targets.
Cade York over 1.5 field goals made (+125)
Pittsburgh's defense ranks sixth in red zone efficiency, allowing offenses to score touchdowns just 37.5% of the time when they get inside the 20. The Browns offense ranks 18th in red zone efficiency, crossing pay dirt on 55.6% of their red zone trips. York is a perfect five-for-five on field goal attempts, including a game-winning 58-yarder in Carolina to open the season. Tonight's game carries the lowest point total of the week at 38 points, so Vegas isn't expecting many touchdowns to be scored in this affair. It's leg day.
Pittsburgh Steelers to call the first timeout (-115)
Kevin Stefanski has coached the Browns for 35 games and has called the first timeout in a game just 28.6% of the time. At home, that number drops to 16.7%, with Stefanski calling the first timeout three times in 18 games. Since 2019, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has called the first timeout in 47% of his games. That percentage shoots up to 56% on the road. Getting this bet at an evenly juiced -115 is a steal.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, and CBS Sports.
