Olympics could ballon to 12,000 athletes as IOC is faced with some hard calls in Mumbai

By James Toney

There was a time when the International Olympic Committee told host cities exactly what to do, Los Angeles have clearly not read that memo.

LA's 2028 Olympic organising committee and IOC officials have been energetically debating behind the scenes what sports will be part of the Games in 2028 for months and it all comes to a head at this weekend's annual session in Mumbai.

Olympic president Thomas Bach's decision to give more power to organising committees, who can now select up to six sports of 'local interest', was widely praised, though he now may be regretting it.

Proposals set to go before various committees in the days ahead are set to drive a coach and horses through his ambition to make the Games cheaper to host and more economically and environmentally sustainable, with a cap of 10,500 athletes and 310 medal 'events'.

With 28 core sports already approved, LA have played a big hand by putting forward five sports to the IOC's programme commission, who in turn will pass the final decision to this week's 15-strong Executive Board meeting, where the true power in the Olympic Movement lies.

Cricket, baseball/softball and flag football had all been widely expected to feature but the inclusion of both lacrosse and squash has left some observers stunned, even from inside those sports.

One IOC member claimed the movement was being 'railroaded' by LA, with a strong chance these sports, except cricket, would be immediately axed by cost-conscious 2032 host Brisbane.

If all five are approved - and billionaire LA boss Casey Wasserman, a famously tough negotiator, has left the IOC in no doubt he expects that to happen - it would take the number of sports in 2028 to 33.

LA were already fuming that skateboarding, surfing and climbing were added to the core sports list last year, despite not being part of the host city contract they signed in 2017.

The principles of the densely typed 43-page host city contract promised the IOC would confirm the full list of sports no later than seven years before the Games, though it crucially adds a caveat they can make further changes in the best interests of the Games, at any time.

There have been words exchanged about the spirit of the agreement between LA and the IOC in recent weeks.

However, the IOC's decision to drop boxing, modern pentathlon and weightlifting from their core sports last year has put them in a fix - add them into the mix for 2028 and the number of sports in LA balloons to 36, a Games record, three more than Tokyo and ten more than staged at London 2012.

IOC's director general Christophe De Kepper 'guaranteed' boxing's inclusion during comments this summer, which are said to have infuriated LA as they were not consulted, though they are keen on the sport being part of their programme.

Issues with boxing's governance were at the heart of the decision not to award them core sport status, though a new international governing body has made great strides in rectifying those concerns.

And, unlike some of the proposed new sports, contested by just a handful of competitive nations, boxing welcomed athletes from 81 different nations to Tokyo, with 25 different countries winning medals.

LA are best described as ambivalent about modern pentathlon - whose support comes from influential IOC vice president and executive board member Juan Antonio Samaranch junior and long-time member Prince Albert of Monaco - and weightlifting, the most doped sport in Olympic history with 106 positive tests at the Games since mandatory testing began in 1968.

If the IOC executive board green light their inclusion, as has been widely briefed, LA are going to push hard for financial support, claiming it materially changes the Games they contracted to host.

And if the sports are included at the expense of one of the five put forward by LA, a mother and father of rows could ignite.

Bach - who has largely kept his counsel about this decision - faces a Hobson's choice, risk upsetting a host that is promising a transformational Games, ditch sports with over a century of Olympic heritage or admit defeat in his bid to make the Games more sustainable, which he hoped would be the legacy of his 12-year presidency, which ends in 2025.

It's not the only tough call either, he is still at loggerheads with international federations, member Olympic committees and national governments on his desire to welcome Russian and Belarusian athletes to Paris next year.

However, it is clear that 36 sports cannot be delivered for the 10,500-athlete cap that was enforced on Paris and is currently enshrined in the Olympic Charter.

In a further twist, core sports now fear they will come under huge pressure to dramatically scale back their numbers, in order to give cover for the decision to expand the Games to a record number of sports.

FIFA privately fear they may be asked to trim the 16-team men's competition to 12, which would bring it in line with the women's event and deliver against goals for athlete gender parity.

Other team sports are worrying their numbers could be slashed; handball, volleyball, hockey and rugby sevens are currently 12 team competitions for men and women.

Other sports could be given a percentage to cut their athlete numbers or the number of medal events in their programmes.

When Bach ran for IOC president ten years ago, he claimed he was happy with more sports at the Games, providing the athlete numbers did not exceed 10,500, though 11,656 took part in Tokyo.

Using Tokyo numbers, the 28 core sports would bring 10,557 athletes to Los Angeles. The proposed addition of eight sports on top of this would take the overall number to nearly 12,000, the biggest ever in terms of sports, events and athletes.