Oscars Predictions: Best Actor – Who Will Lead the Critics’ Awards for Leading Men?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 30, 2023): In an unexpected turn, Franz Rogowski emerged as the surprise NYFCC winner for best actor for his performance in Mubi’s indie drama “Passages,” triumphing over many established names. The NYFCC often leans towards unconventional performances, as seen in past winners like Timothy Spall in “Mr. Turner” (2014). It’s worth noting that three of the last five winners received Oscar nominations, hinting at Rogowski’s potential continued presence during the awards season.

This begs the question — who will the critics rally behind?

This could be where multiple leading men win awards throughout the season, even when we arrive at the televised ceremonies. This could look “messy” similar to 2002 which saw Globe winners Jack Nicholson (“About Schmidt”) and Richard Gere followed by SAG winner Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”), and ultimately ending up with Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”).

The top six men look locked for a battle that any of them can miss. Who it will be remains to be determined.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

1. Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)

2. Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

3. Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

5. Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)

Next in Line

1. Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)

2. Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Adam Driver — “Ferrari” (Neon)

4. Zac Efron — “The Iron Claw” (A24)

5. Franz Rogowski — “Passages” (Mubi)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

1. Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)

2. Matt Damon — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

3. Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

4. Christian Friedel — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)

5. Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

6. Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario” (A24)

7. Kôji Yakusho — “Perfect Days” (Neon)

8. Eugenio Derbez — “Radical” (Miercoles Entertainment)

9. Gael García Bernal — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

10. Jamie Foxx — “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

Also In Contention

1. Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

2. Alden Ehrenreich — “Fair Play” (Netflix)

3. Michael Fassbender — “The Killer” (Netflix)

4. Teo Yoo — “Past Lives” (A24)

5. Benoît Magimel — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

6. Jesse Garcia — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

7. Michael B. Jordan — “Creed III” (MGM)

8. Michael Peña — “A Million Miles Away” (MGM)

9. Jay Baruchel — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

10. Mads Mikkelsen — “The Promised Land” (Magnolia Pictures)

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

• John David Washington — “The Creator” (20th Century Studios)

• Kenneth Branagh — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)

• Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario” (A24)

• Zac Efron — “The Iron Claw” (A24)

• Tee Yoo — “Past Lives” (A24)

• Jesse Eisenberg — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

• Christian Friedel — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)

• Matt Damon — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Jamie Foxx — “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Gael García Bernal — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Paul Mescal — “Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Morgan Freeman — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Jake Gyllenhaal — “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Asante Blackk — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Orén Kinlan — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

• Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

• Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

• Taron Egerton — “Tetris” (Apple Original Films)

• Liev Schreiber — “Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)

• Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

• Jay Baruchel — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

• Benoît Magimel — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

• Jesse Garcia — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

• Asante Blackk — “Story Ave” (Kino Lorber)

• Keanu Reeves — “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

• Joel Edgerton — “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)

• Mads Mikkelsen — “The Promised Land” (Magnolia Pictures)

• Paul Rudd — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

• Chris Pratt — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

• Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)

• Joel Edgerton — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

• Callum Turner — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

• Michael B. Jordan — “Creed III” (MGM)

• Michael Peña — “A Million Miles Away” (MGM)

• Eugenio Derbez — “Radical” (Miercoles Entertainment)

• Franz Rogowski — “Passages” (Mubi)

• Jaime Vadell — “El Conde” (Netflix)

• Alden Ehrenreich — “Fair Play” (Netflix)

• Josh O’Connor — “La Chimera” (Neon)

• Kôji Yakusho — “Perfect Days” (Neon)

• Michael Fassbender — “The Killer” (Netflix)

• Mahershala Ali — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)

• Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)

• Rafael Federman — “Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

• Chris Pine — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)

• Tom Cruise — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Michael Fassbender — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Paul Dano — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

• Denzel Washington — “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)

• Shameik Moore — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

• Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Adam Driver — “Ferrari” (Neon)

• Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

• Peter Dinklage — “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)

• Jason Mamoa — “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)

• Xolo Maridueña — “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

• Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

• Harrison Ford — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)

• Jonah Hauer-King — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

2022 category winner: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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