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Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Lily Gladstone’s Big Week Brings Her to the Forefront for ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’

Clayton Davis
·6-min read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role

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Weekly Commentary (Nov. 30, 2023): Lily Gladstone’s portrayal of Mollie Burkhart in “Killers of the Flower Moon” earned the star her first major critics’ award for the role after her triumph for best lead performance in the indie flick “The Unknown Country” at the Gotham Awards. Variety exclusively revealed Gladstone’s decision to campaign for the lead actress category, diverging from earlier speculations of her being considered for supporting actress. This move sparked concerns akin to Michelle Williams’ campaign shift last year for “The Fabelmans.” Despite initial debates regarding her nomination alignment for best actress versus supporting, Gladstone has seemingly allayed those concerns (for now).

Her victory for “Unknown Country,” though for a less-heralded project, is an opportunity to showcase her talent and captivate a room. She took full advantage of it, and it will work in her favor down the line.

Noteworthy: we have another bloodbath in one of the four acting categories, which can go any number of directions.

If you follow this week’s rankings down to the No. 15 spot, there’s an outcome of any lineup that includes any number of these powerhouse performers.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

  2. Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)

  3. Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

  4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)

  5. Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

Next in Line

  1. Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)

  2. Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

  3. Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)

  4. Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)

  5. Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)

  2. Lily Gladstone — “The Unknown Country” (Music Box Films)

  3. Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)

  4. Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

  5. Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)

  6. Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  7. Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)

  8. Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  9. Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)

  10. Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

Also In Contention

  1. Michelle Williams — “Showing Up” (A24)

  2. Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

  3. Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  4. Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  5. Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  6. Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

  7. Ariana DeBose — “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  8. Julia Garner — “The Royal Hotel” (Neon)

  9. Rachel Sennott — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  10. Ayo Edebiri — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)

  • Cailee Spaeny — “Priscilla” (A24)

  • Michelle Williams — “Showing Up” (A24)

  • Julianne Moore — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

  • Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24) **

  • Rosa Salazar — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Kylie Rogers — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Jessie Buckley — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  • Eve Hewson — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

  • Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

  • Babetida Sadjo — “Our Father, The Devil” (Cinedigm)

  • Helen Mirren — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)

  • Nia Vardalos — “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)

  • Teyana Taylor — “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

  • Trace Lysette — “Monica” (IFC Films)

  • Anya Taylor-Joy — “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)

  • Jessica Chastain — “Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment)

  • Abby Ryder Fortson — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

  • Rachel Zegler — “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

  • Ashley Park — “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

  • Evangeline Lilly — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

  • Brie Larson — “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

  • Ayo Edebiri — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  • Rachel Sennott — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  • Lily Gladstone — “The Unknown Country” (Music Box Films)

  • Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

  • Thomasin MacKenzie — “Eileen” (Neon)

  • Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon) **

  • Jessica Chastain — “Mother’s Instinct” (Neon)

  • Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)

  • Phoebe Dynevor — “Fair Play” (Netflix)

  • Myha’la Herrold — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

  • Julia Roberts — “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

  • Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **

  • Natalie Portman — “May December” (Netflix)

  • Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)

  • Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)

  • Emily Blunt — “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

  • Michelle Rodriguez — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Samara Weaving — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Molly Gordon — “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Jennifer Lawrence — “No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)

  • Hailee Steinfeld — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

  • Melissa Barrera — “Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Jane Levy — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Layla Mohammadi — “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Zar Amir Ebrahimi — “Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Leonie Benesch — “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Hilary Swank — “The Good Mother” (Vertical Entertainment)

  • Allison Williams — “M3gan” (Universal Pictures)

  • Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

  • Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

  • Phoebe Waller-Bridge — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)

  • Halle Bailey — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Ariana DeBose — “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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