PAP handover: Bold move for PM Lee Hsien Loong to let DPM Lawrence Wong lead next General Election, say experts

SINGAPORE — Former transport minister S. Iswaran faced 27 charges on 18 January, including corruption, obtaining items as a public servant from a business associate, and obstructing justice.

Amidst this legal tumult, Singapore anticipates a significant leadership transition. In November 2023, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong revealed his plan to pass the baton to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong before the next General Election, which must be held before November 2025.

As the nation grapples with the implications of Iswaran's corruption charges, political experts whom Yahoo Southeast Asia spoke to suggest that the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) will feel the impact of Iswaran's case, although the extent remains uncertain. The experts also highlight potential challenges in the leadership transition, such as adapting to evolving voter mindset.

DPM Wong's potential bid for a people's mandate before assuming prime ministership

Associate Professor Eugene Tan from the Singapore Management University highlights the importance of the timeline set last November, marking an "important step" in the leadership transition, aligning with the PAP's 70th anniversary in November 2024 and marking PM Lee's 20th year in office.

However, he expresses an "outlier view", suggesting that while the PAP party leadership handover may occur in November, the handover for the prime minister post might not necessarily coincide. "It is possible he will hand over both this year. It may not be at the same time, but it could all happen this year," Tan says.

"We should not exclude the possibility that (PM Lee) may only hand over the party leadership in 2024, with Mr Wong taking over as PM immediately after the next general election - assuming the PAP wins."

Highlighting the potential strategic reasons behind such a move, he states, "DPM Wong may look at the handover slightly differently from his predecessors. One is that he may say he wants a mandate from the people before becoming Prime Minister. In contrast, Mr Lee Hsien Loong and Mr Goh Chok Tong took over midway (through an election term)."

Goh Chok Tong had assumed office as the second Prime Minister of Singapore on 28 November 1990, succeeding Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister who had held the position since June 1959. Following this, Lee Hsien Loong was officially sworn in as the third Prime Minister of Singapore on 12 August 2004, succeeding Goh in the role.

Assoc Prof Tan also explains that delaying the assumption of the prime ministership until after the next General Election could resonate well with younger voters. There is also a strategic aspect to the timing, as retaining PM Lee as PM until the next election allows the ruling party to feature both leaders in campaign materials across all constituencies.

On why he believes there is a need for both to be present, he said, "Mr Wong will build up his popularity over time, and we cannot deny that Mr Lee still remains probably the most popular PAP politician.

"By featuring both faces on the party posters and banners, they are also signalling that the handover is imminent...and by using PM Lee's image, given that this will be his last election as PM, he may also be seeking voters to give him a strong farewell."

Dr Walid Jumblatt Abdullah, an assistant professor with the School of Social Sciences at the Nanyang Technological University, finds the PAP's decision to hand over leadership before the election "quite bold".

"I thought he would give Lawrence Wong more of a runway, and if he leads the party into the election, then Lawrence Wong has five years to recover from it or build on it," he says.

However, Dr Walid acknowledges that the PAP's approach may be a way of presenting DPM Wong as a fourth-generation leader and seeking a strong mandate for his support.

Challenges in the face of global shifts, voter mindset evolution

Addressing potential challenges that DPM Wong could face, Assoc Prof Tan acknowledges the uncertain global landscape and the evolving mindset of Singaporean voters.

He points to the changing dynamics observed in the 2020 general election, saying, "Typically, in insecure times, during an economic downturn, voters tend to opt for a tried and tested brand, a party that has consistently delivered. However in 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the opposition turned in its best showing, prompting the PM to appoint the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament.

"We know that the pandemic will change people's attitudes, but we don't know to what extent and whether it's a plus or minus for the ruling party."

Another challenge highlighted by Assoc Prof Tan is the geopolitical challenge, which also creates the biggest issue tied to the trust and confidence of the PAP: cost of living and inflation.

He raises the question of whether, amid these challenges, voters might echo Lee Kuan Yew's sentiment from years ago, contemplating giving the opposition a chance to showcase their capabilities. This could stem from the belief that the PAP has reached its peak, and voters may consider exploring what the opposition can bring to the table.

Meanwhile, Dr Walid points out the challenge posed by the increasingly demanding electorate's expectations for fairness towards the opposition and open dialogues. He mentions that the younger generation, as observed in the current episode of the Palestinian crisis, seeks more discussions and demonstrations.

Assessing the impact of the S Iswaran corruption case

Assoc Prof Tan also addresses the impact of the Iswaran corruption case, on undecided voters. He labels it a "known unknown", emphasising that while the extent of its impact will only be revealed after voting.

"The question is how badly will it affect the PAP with regard to undecided voters, who are not tied to any party. One cannot deny that the Iswaran case, together with the cost of living, could be negative points for the PAP," he says.

He adds that the impact on the West Coast GRC - where Iswaran served as Member of Parliament from 2001 to 2024 - may serve as a barometer for gauging the broader impact on both the ruling party and the opposition.

Dr Walid also acknowledges that the Iswaran case "didn't help the PAP" and might dent trust to some extent. "Since Iswaran has pleaded not guilty, so we'll see how it goes. At this point in time, I'm agnostic about how significant the dent will be."

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