This week’s course in the PGA is a nifty par-72 course at Bay Hill. With dog legs, water hazards, three-inch rough and the longest par-3s on tour, I’m backing players who play solid second-shot golf as this could also be a less-than-driver course. Iron play, success on Bermuda grass greens and course history are just a few things I weighed into this week’s picks. Here’s one full tournament head-to-head matchup to bet in the Arnold Invitational in Florida.
Jason Day -110 vs. Viktor Hovland
The Aussie native is one of the players I like for an outright this week. Day is playing some of his best golf as of late. In the last 32 rounds, Day is fourth in the field for strokes gained in ball striking. He’s been stellar off the tee, ranking top 20 in accuracy, which bodes well for this course if I’m backing players who can play positional golf. This year, Day is third in the field for strokes gained total behind only Jon Rahm and Chris Kirk, two players who have won a title in 2023. To his benefit, Day is also a solid putter as he's third in strokes gained putting on the year. His run of great play has led to four top-20 finishes since January, including three top 10s.
Although Hovland is one of the better ball strikers on tour, his short game is lacking. He’s lost strokes around the green and/or putting in all four PGA events he’s played this year. Bermuda greens are also his worst putting surface. Hovland did finish T2 in this event last year but this is more about recent form. Day is on a roll and a win looks to be in his near future.