Singapore predicts daily highs over 34˚C in new government report
By Sheryl Tian Tong Lee
(Bloomberg) — The daily average temperature in tropical Singapore is likely to range between 29.3˚C and 32.9˚C (84.7-91.2˚F) by 2100, according to new models of the effects of climate change from the government’s Centre for Climate Research Singapore.
In its medium- to worst-case scenarios, which assume continued use of fossil fuels, the report predicts increases of 1.4˚C to 5˚C from the current averages, with daily maximums of 32.8 to 36.7˚C. In either case, extreme rainfall and dry spells will become more common and more severe, and sea levels will rise significantly.
Higher temperatures and more severe storms and droughts are posing new problems for cities around the world. Rival financial hub Hong Kong experienced unprecedented flooding last fall. Heat waves ravaged the hottest cities in India last summer, causing power cuts, school closures and deaths. Madrid recorded highs at least 6C over normal in the fall; London registered its warmest October day in five years.
Singapore’s worst-case scenario assumes a 4.4˚C average increase in global temperatures by 2100, a rise that’s unlikely based on current global policies and actions. Even so, researchers find it helpful to model because it improves the overall range of predictions, said Ali Mashayek, an associate professor of climate dynamics at the University of Cambridge.
At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last month, countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, and transition their energy systems away from fossil fuels. Nonetheless, in Singapore and elsewhere, extreme weather is intensifying.
Singapore’s more modest scenario assumes a 2.7˚C average increase, on the optimistic side of the United Nations consensus based on the current global trajectory. Here’s what that would look like:
Daily average temperatures could rise from 27.9˚C now to 30.7˚C. The daily maximum temperature could hit 34.4˚C, up from 31.4˚C currently.
Very hot days, with temperatures exceeding 35˚C, will become the norm. Singapore averaged 21 very hot days annually over the last 40 years; by the end of the century, that could reach 261 days.
The number of warm nights, where temperatures exceed 26.3˚C, will quadruple from 76 a year to almost every night.
Wet monsoon season, from December to January, could get wetter by 28%. Dry months, from June to September, could get drier by as much as 17%.
Average sea levels around the city-state could rise as much as 0.88 meters (2.9 feet).
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
