Super Bowl 2023 pick against the spread: Tough to fade Patrick Mahomes as an underdog
PHOENIX — The Kansas City Chiefs have had their issues covering the spread as a favorite. They were actually one of the worst teams against the spread in the NFL this season.
But as an underdog in the Patrick Mahomes era? Good luck going against them.
The Chiefs have been underdogs just nine times in games Mahomes has started, which is remarkable considering it has happened only nine times over five seasons. And the Chiefs have been a great bet getting points.
Per BetMGM’s John Ewing, in those nine games the Chiefs are 7-1-1 against the spread.
Super Bowl LVII will be the 10th chance to bet on Mahomes as an underdog. The Chiefs very briefly opened up as a favorite, but the Eagles got a rush of bets and settled as a 1.5-point favorite at BetMGM.
And if you’re betting the Chiefs as an underdog, it’s because you fear betting against Mahomes. That’s reasonable.
There’s a lot of angles for the Super Bowl but the brass tacks of the game are that the Eagles have the much better roster, and the Chiefs have the greatest player in the world. Whatever analysis you have about the Eagles’ pass rush or the Chiefs’ rookie defensive backs against the Eagles’ talented pass rushers, it all comes back to Mahomes vs. Philadelphia’s depth.
It’s a bit surprising the Eagles are favored given how many casual bettors get involved with the Super Bowl and the familiarity with the Chiefs and Mahomes. But it’s hard to deny how good the Eagles have been.
The Eagles became the fifth team in NFL history to win their divisional round and conference championship playoff games by 21 or more points. The other four teams are among the greatest in NFL history: 1978 Steelers, 1985 Bears, 1988 49ers, 1989 49ers. Philadelphia is 16-1 with Jalen Hurts starting at quarterback this season. The Eagles played the softest schedule in the NFL, but they blew out most of the weaker teams they faced. That’s a sign of a dominant team.
The Eagles really don't have a weakness. If there is one, Philly's run defense isn't that great. But Kansas City's rush offense is just OK and they probably won't want to run it much anyway. The Eagles have a great pass rushing defensive line, playmakers in the secondary, two No. 1 receivers on offense, a rushing offense that was No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA this season and a quarterback in Hurts who will likely finish second in the MVP voting. If the Eagles win the Super Bowl, what they've done this season will age very well from a historical perspective.
And the Chiefs have Mahomes. Generally, that has been enough. Let's take a look at all nine games in which he has been an underdog:
2017 Week 17: +3 at Broncos, won 27-24
2018 Week 1: +3.5 at Chargers, won 38-28
2018 Week 2: +4.5 at Steelers, won 42-37
2018 Week 6: +3.5 at Patriots, lost 43-40
2018 Week 11: +3 at Rams, lost 54-51 (push)
2019 Week 14: +3 at Patriots, won 23-16
2020 Week 3: +3.5 at Ravens, won 34-20
2022 Week 6: +2.5 vs. Bills, lost 24-20
2022 Week 4: +2 at Buccaneers, won 41-21
It's frightening to go against Mahomes (and the rest of the Chiefs, who aren't exactly terrible around Mahomes) in a game like this. But that's what we're doing for the Super Bowl.
For the entire season, the Eagles have shown that they're an elite team (some of us saw that coming before the season even started). The biggest concern going against the Chiefs, other than fading Mahomes, is that Hurts' shoulder hasn't really been tested since he missed two games due to injury and he might not be completely healthy. We'll see if he can make some big-time throws when the Eagles need it.
We'll gamble that two weeks off helps Hurts, and the rest of a fantastic roster is ready to keep the Eagles' momentum going. The final pick of the season is Eagles -1.5, with a bonus pick for the under at 50.5. It should be a great game. It's not like Mahomes will go down without a fight.
Last week: 2-0
Playoffs to date: 11-1
Season to date: 149-128-4
