Super Bowl 2024 betting: Bettors in Kansas are breaking with the rest of the country on the over/under

Do Kansas bettors know something the rest of the country doesn’t ahead of Super Bowl LVIII?

Kansas is the only state among the 28 where BetMGM operates that has a majority of its users betting the under on Sunday. The total for the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs has stayed steady at 47.5 points for much of the buildup to Sunday’s game.

Nearly two-thirds of bettors across the country are betting the over as users are leaning toward a high-scoring game. But not those backing the Chiefs in Kansas.

The state is the most Chiefs-leaning in the country as 93% of bets on the spread are on the Chiefs. Though the Chiefs play in Missouri, Kansas is the best barometer of Chiefs fans’ wagering; sports betting is not legal in Missouri.

And Chiefs fans have seen some low-scoring games recently. You don’t have to look far to see why K.C. fans would be thinking Sunday’s game would hit the under.

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The Chiefs are giving up just 17 points per game this season; only the Baltimore Ravens allowed fewer points during the regular season. The Chiefs are the only team to allow 24 or fewer points in every game this season as well. Only Denver in Week 8 of the regular season and Buffalo in the divisional round have gotten to 24 points.

The Chiefs are also averaging just 22 points per game themselves. The 27 points that Kansas City scored against the Bills tied for the biggest output since the Chiefs scored 31 points against the Las Vegas Raiders on Nov. 26.

The 49ers, meanwhile, gave up just four more points than the Chiefs did during the regular season.

If you’re leaning toward the over like everyone else in the 27 other states is, you’re banking on an up-and-down 49ers defense allowing points like it did in a 34-31 NFC title game win over the Detroit Lions. And you’re likely eyeing a 49ers offense that features weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to match up well with the Chiefs defense.

But Kansas clearly isn’t thinking that way.