The Overhang: How Bengals are creatively deploying Ja'Marr Chase, and breaking down a god mode Trevor Lawrence play

Week 6 is here! Are we having fun yet?!

We’re back to our normally scheduled programming here on The Overhang. The five Ps (willing to hear any and all naming suggestions) are back!

Yes, we’re redirecting our gaze back across the league after spending last week previewing the 49ers' ultimate dismantling of the Cowboys, and also away from our smoldering fantasy lineups. The season is taking shape, but there is still plenty of football to be played. So, let’s get to it.

All data via TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

Player: Ja’Marr Chase

Some days, I want to use this part of the column to highlight under-the-radar and ascending players across the league. But today is not one of those days.

Instead, we are going to highlight one of the best players in the NFL, and more specifically how that player is being used this season.

That player is Ja’Marr Chase. You may have heard that he went ballistic against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, finishing with 15 receptions on 19 targets, and 192 receiving yards and three touchdowns:

What I wanted to highlight is how specifically the Bengals have tweaked their use of Chase (other than just saying "MORE").

After Chase was drafted, he did his damage predominantly from the outside, aligning there on over 80% of his snaps over his first two seasons and getting targeted frequently down the field. Defenses adjusted in the 2022 season, forcing the Bengals to adapt their whole gameplan and how they use their star weapon.

With Joe Burrow ailing and defenses adjusting further to start the 2023 season, the Bengals have started moving Chase around and leaning further into the efficient lifestyle that was so beneficial for them last season.

Compare the first five weeks of Chase’s rookie season in 2021, often aligning near the sideline and ripping off explosive gain after explosive gain ...

To this season, with the Bengals deciding to move Chase around the formation and use him for various quick hitters:

Chase’s average depth of target has dropped from 12.6 yards in 2021 to 7.5 yards this season. He has been targeted on throws of 20 or more air yards only five times, a target rate of 8.3% that’s nearly only a third of his rookie season rate of 23.4%, with his explosive play rate less than half of his rookie year number reflecting these shorter throws. As a result, his gains have not been as chunky as they have been in the past.

While they haven’t been chunky, they’ve been creamy. Very creamy.

So far, 18.5% of Chase’s routes have been an efficient gain (i.e. a play that generated a positive expect points added) for the Bengals, a mark that ranks fifth currently in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. It's also 5% better than his career average, and Chase isn’t getting just a few tidy yards on these targets. He is currently earning a first down on 14.2% of his routes, again much better than his career average of 10.4%.

This is a remarkable shift in style necessitated by adapting defenses. But it also speaks to Chase and the rest of the offense molding the attack to what defenses are throwing at them. So, the Bengals are having Chase work on shorter routes.

Cincinnati is also having Chase work from the slot at a more frequent clip through five weeks. And the results have been promising. Chase has aligned in the slot on 27.6% of his snaps this season and has been targeted 22 times on those plays, the latter number already bettering his rookie-year mark of 19. Bengals coaches experimented with using Chase more in the slot as their offense evolved in 2022. Now there is a further twist that they’re leaning into through five weeks in 2023: aligning Chase at the No. 3 spot in 3x1 alignments.

The 3 spot in a trips (3x1) formation is where you would typically see a tight end align in a “standard” version of the formation family. So, if you start counting from the sideline inwards, that player would be No. 3 of the sequence:

It might seem like a simple twist, but it’s different than a standard slot alignment (where No. 2 would be in the picture above). It changes the potential routes that Chase can run (think of it being like a helicopter as opposed to aligning on the outside, which is more like the path of a plane) and changes what defenses have to run to keep their attention focused on Chase.

So far, though, it seems to be a nice changeup for this Bengals offense that’s trying to get into a groove as Burrow’s calf gets healthier.

Chase has run 21 routes for nine catches and six first downs from the No. 3 spot this season, including three first downs on five routes from there in Week 5. Over Chase’s first two seasons, he ran just 13 routes from that formation location with just five catches.

The Bengals are going to keep adding new pitches to keep defenses uneasy until they regain their fastball (aka Burrow’s calf). And using No. 1 at the No. 3 spot seems to be a good one to lean into.

Play: Playing quarterback is hard

This isn’t a new concept or trend this week, just a good ol’ example of how hard playing quarterback is in the *Ron Jaworski voice* National Football League.

The situation? Third-and-5, first quarter.

The quarterback? Trevor Lawrence.

Everything about what the Bills are showing on this play screams some form of man coverage. There is a safety deep in the middle of the field, and the Bills are matching their defenders with like bodies — i.e. they are matching defenders with offensive skill players who make sense for their positions to play man coverage. Cornerback on wide receiver, safety on tight end, linebacker on running back.

Safety Micah Hyde (No. 23, marked "S" in red below) is on tight end Evan Engram. The three Bills cornerbacks on the field are aligned directly across from the three Jaguars wide receivers (marked yellow).

The Jaguars even use a formation indicator to help discern this. They initially aligned running back Travis Etienne outside before shifting him back to the backfield. Bills linebacker Dorian Williams follows (marked blue):

So when Williams moves back with Etienne to join his fellow linebacker in a double-mug look before the snap, it seems like an easy bet that the Bills are going to be in Cover 1, right?

But this is the NFL. And defensive coordinators are evil in the NFL. At the snap, the Bills were very much not in Cover 1. No sirree they were not.

Instead, the Bills rotated into Cover 2. A yang to the yin they presented. Showing rock, playing scissors, and hoping to catch the quarterback throwing paper:

The Bills' defense is one of the best at changing their coverage looks from pre- to post-snap. They frequently catch quarterbacks with these moving pictures, baiting ill-advised throws or forcing QBs to hold onto the ball and let their pass rush close in.

But Trevor Lawrence is not just any quarterback. Lawrence does a great job here of confirming what he saw pre-snap. And when he confirms that it is Cover 2 that he is seeing, he doesn’t simply find any receiver in a hopes of getting a lucky first down. He attacks one of the weak areas of Cover 2, the side pocket area.

The Jaguars have a high-low concept going toward the sideline. (Calvin Ridley’s route is a little funky at the bottom of the screen because he’s probably confused by the coverage, too.) But it’s likely a staple concept often called "Smash" or "China." This concept has the quarterback read a defender (here the cornerback at the bottom of the screen) and either attack high or low. It is a great traditional way to attack Cover 2 as it can, theoretically, create a throw right in that little voided area of the field.

Again, easy enough if you know what’s coming. But not so much when you have to figure out and confirm that it is indeed Cover 2 in under two seconds, and then still make a throw from the far hash to the sideline with Ed Oliver a couple feet away from potentially knocking the air out of your lungs.

But when you succeed, you get that hard earned first down and get to do it alllllll over again. Ho hum, next play.

Playing quarterback in the NFL is hard. Playing quarterback well in the NFL is even harder. Luckily, Trevor Lawrence does that whole playing quarterback thing very, very well.

Plan: Lions' 2-for-1 Shot Special

NFL game plans are extremely situational, with specific plays being used at optimal (or at least planned to be optimal) times to account for down, field position and opponent. Coaching staffs spend all week parsing through the variables to get players in the best position to succeed (or at least pretend to do so).

It's really in the red zone and on third down where you can see a play-caller and coaching staff’s personality come out, whether it’s a smoke-and-mirrors design or an aggressive concept that leans into the punch (or the complete opposite of that). These situations are a clean lens through which to view the coaching staff’s preparation and awareness for the moment, previous play-calls and the players’ strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

The “shot play” zone between the 25- and 50-yard lines, known by some teams as the “gold” or “green” zone, is another one of those specific situations in teams’ game plans. It’s where coaches look to steal an explosive play with a hyper-stylized (more Tarantino than Snyder) play design that can deliver an explosive play and flash knockout against stunned defenses.

Hell, even Knute Rockne was aware that offenses look to take advantage in this part of the field with trick plays:

So offenses know they can let loose a bit in this area of the field. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson especially likes to let loose and unbutton maybe one more button on his collared shirt to let you know. Johnson and the Lions' offensive coaching staff have been among the league’s best over the past 14 calendar months at coming up with designs every week to get first downs in key moments or create touchdowns.

Like this fourth-down play in the red zone against the Seahawks, where the Lions ran a counter run concept for wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to pick up the first down:

Johnson likes to carefully craft these third- and fourth-down plays, whipping up a first down with a fusion of classic concepts with the ingredients he has at his disposal.

He especially likes to get to cooking in that aforementioned shot zone. Because once the Lions get past the 50, preparing for Detroit is preparing for it all. Whether it’s flea flickers ...

... or reverses ...

... or double-moves ...

... or once they get near the goal line, uh, zone reads with Jared Goff?

As soon as the boys in Honolulu blue get past midfield, defenses have to be on the highest of alerts that something wicked that way comes. No offense has used more trick passes than Detroit's four this year. The Lions are going to test a defense’s rules and discipline and if there is an opening, Goff — who is playing really good football right now — will take advantage. And the Lions don’t just hope to get a nice efficient gain on these plays. They, appropriately enough, go for the jugular.

The Lions currently sit at 4-1 with an offense that ranks in or near the top 10 in common stats like points per game (fourth), points per drive (seventh) and red zone touchdown rate (eighth), as well as other metrics like DVOA (fourth), EPA per play (ninth), success rate (11th) and explosive play rate (fifth). While they throw these big punches in games, it is not how they live on a down-to-down basis. They feature a strong offensive line and are constantly jabbing defenses with their run game and Goff’s efficient play. And when the timing is right, i.e. just as they enter the opponent’s turf, here comes the uppercut against an opponent trying to cover up.

And just when you think you have that guarded, here comes the Bolo Punch:

(A snap through the quarterback’s legs is the ultimate play-caller heat check.)

Prospect: The WRs in Oregon-Washington

Take your pick of one of the wide receivers in the Oregon-Washington top-10 brouhaha this Saturday.

Washington's Rome Odunze leads the Pac-12 in yards and has as complete of a skillset as you will find at the position. Odunze has a high baseline in every aspect of playing wide receiver. He has good size, can win inside and out with route-running polish at all three levels, and enough speed to take the top off defenses. He is confident with his catching ability and will snag throws at all angles. Odunze is currently neck-and-neck (for me) with Florida State’s Keon Coleman for the second-best wide receiver prospect in this upcoming draft, behind Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. His do-it-allness with that athletic profile will excite talent evaluators throughout the league.

His teammates Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan are no slouches. Both are productive and are Day 2 draft prospects in my eyes, with McMillan really coming along this year and showing off his smooth athletic ability and route running. I view him as a Christian Kirk-like vertical threat from the slot.

On the other side, Troy Franklin for Oregon is a twitchy outside wide receiver prospect who is off to a strong first month of the season (he’s behind only Odunze on the Pac-12 leaderboard in receiving yards). He has also improved this year in regard to the finer aspects of the position, and still has room to improve. But his height, big catching range and twitchy athleticism give him upside as a true blue X wide receiver at the next level. I’ve been a fan of Franklin so far this year and I'm bullish on him as a prospect.

Prop

Snuck in that Justin Fields rushing prop last week at the last minute which ended up a winner (who knew the passing overs would hit as well). This week on "Thursday Night Football" we have an AFC West tilt between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are the Chiefs, despite what has been perceived as early season stumbles. They’re 4-1 and the offense is starting to cook. They're a team figuring out how to use its assortment of other pass-catchers. And that Patrick Mahomes guy still rocks.

The Broncos, on the other hand, have one of the worst defenses on record through the first five weeks of the season.

Even outside the Miami Dolphins game when the Broncos surrendered 70 points, they have still been leaky to big plays, even surrendering three plays of at least 30 yards to the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets offense and nine plays of at least 20 yards to the Chicago Bears the week before. So, while the Broncos' offense and Russell Wilson have been fine this season (even more than fine at times), and things can improve, that defense has been comically bad to start the season.

I’m picking the over on a few longest gains wagers and hoping for a Chiefs explosion (all odds via BetMGM):

Thursday night prop 1: Patrick Mahomes over 12.5 yards longest rush (-120)

Thursday night prop 2: Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 13.5 yards longest reception (-110)

Thursday night prop 3: Jerick McKinnon over 9.5 yards longest reception (-120)

Thursday night prop 4: Isiah Pacheco over 15.5 yards longest rush (-120)

Thursday night prop 5: Patrick Mahomes over 268.5 yards passing (-115)