The Overhang: Sam Darnold might start for the 49ers, so how different — if at all — would they look?

So this week’s edition of The Overhang was going to be about how some playoff favorites should be feeling and if there was any cause for alarm from their Week 7 losses.

It still will be (jump to the bottom if you want to read about the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions), but the main focus this week is on the San Francisco 49ers, and specifically Sam Darnold, who's suddenly more likely than not to start this Sunday after Brock Purdy entered concussion protocol.

How much would Sam Darnold starting impact 49ers' offense?

The 49ers had looked like they had a laminated card for the cool kids' table in 2023 after their Week 5 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys. But now they've suffered two straight losses, with questions even arising for quarterback Brock Purdy. You know, the guy who was tied for third in MVP odds just two weeks ago.

When it rains, it pours. And the droplets Wednesday were shaped like ones and fours.

Purdy in concussion protocol may mean Darnold will start for the 49ers this weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals, as no NFL player has played the same week that they entered the protocol so far in 2023.

What will this explosive 49ers attack look like with Darnold? Well, it likely won’t change much from how it looks with Purdy. Kyle Shanahan’s offense rarely ventures far from its run game staples and play-action plays.

Darnold provides a strong arm that can fire throws down the field on straight dropback concepts, which the 49ers toyed with in the preseason:

That’s an old-school type of play. Line up under the center, drop waaayyy back on a seven-step dropback (with no play fakes!), and just fire a deep one-on-one route toward the sideline.

Darnold is more than capable of what the 49ers will ask. He is comfortable playing under center and turning his back to the defense on play-action concepts, something Shanahan prefers to do with his quarterbacks. He is a good athlete capable of throwing on the move and handling designed QB runs to Bolo punch defenses:

That four-week stretch in 2021 when Sam Darnold’s legs were the most devastating red zone weapon in the NFL was a nod of what he can do when asked to run. While I’m being a bit facetious, it still should be noted that it’s available.

Not that you want to build the whole plane out of Darnold runs. Or Darnold touches, period. This offense is built to be as quarterback-proof as it can be. It’s a Shanahan offense, after all. Strong run game, play-action throws and dropback concepts that put a cap on progression difficulty. All things that will help any quarterback, but especially one like Darnold who can have frustrating moments of decision-making that have held him back despite his flashes.

This offense and situation is a great experiment playing out: “What if a traits-based but wildly inconsistent quarterback who can struggle with limiting his choices plays with a coach who likes to have his quarterbacks point and shoot?”

Darnold will be asked to temper his worst characteristics like attempting to do too much and turning the ball over, or taking backbreaking sacks that nuke drives.

There couldn’t be an offense better to limit those tendencies, and Darnold’s ability to create out of structure when things go askew and push the ball would continue to provide the wild-card element for this offense that Purdy has also provided.

Perhaps Purdy was the gateway drug to Darnold’s dangerous delights.

The Sam Darnold of 2022-23 is not the one who flamed out with the Jets

I am not ignoring the elephant in the room that Darnold was statistically one of the worst quarterbacks in recent times, ranking 35th in success rate and EPA per dropback among 37 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019. He's above only Davis Mills and fellow Jets high draft pick alum Zach Wilson.

But here’s the kicker to all of this: Darnold played well for the Panthers in 2022, and he played well again this preseason for the 49ers. A calendar year of “hey, that's pretty good!” to go along with the flashes of S tier:

He churned out positive performances in five of the six games he played in Carolina in 2022 and finished with easily his best season in terms of success rate and EPA per dropback, along with a QBR over 50 for the first time in his career. From Weeks 12 through 16 he threw for nearly 8.8 yards per attempt with nine total touchdowns and, most importantly, only three turnovers.

And that positive play continued this preseason. The 49ers coaches seemed to like asking Darnold to throw it down the field and he was happy to oblige. He also showed off a comfort level with gameplan-specific concepts like this progression in the red zone:

The end zone view of that play is enjoyable to watch of Darnold as he notices the disadvantage leverage of most of the routes.

Rather than panic and try to force a creation play, he continues along the progression chain and hits Willie Snead along the back line of the end zone. He worked through the play as intended and the result was a touchdown.

It’s preseason, but it’s growth. And most importantly it showed that Darnold’s ability can be channeled into more consistently positive play.

But onto the regular season. The team that the 49ers and (likely) Darnold will be playing this weekend has a defensive coordinator who salivates at the thought of fooling another quarterback.

Here's what the 49ers will be up against this week

Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is among the league’s best in week-to-week gameplanning. He loves to change looks on quarterbacks, especially on third down.

I’ll show you a screenshot of a pre-snap third down look against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, a game against another former New York Jets quarterback in Geno Smith:

OK, now guess where the Bengals' defenders end up.

1 Mississippi … 2 Mississippi … 3 Mississippi …

So, remember what you guessed. Think hard.

Because here is how the play actually ended up unfolding:

The Bengals went from a blitz-heavy look, forcing communication between the Seahawks' offensive line, Smith and rookie running back Zach Charbonnet, to a Cover 2 look that can muddy up throwing lanes with arms. That can be especially difficult if the quarterback cannot properly anticipate those throwing lanes, punishing tardy QBs who wait that extra half-second to confirm what they’re seeing, even if they are going to the proper spot, with tipped throws and potential interceptions.

Also notice the crafty, quarterback-y move from Smith on this play. Rather than try a higher-difficulty throw, especially one that he might not feel comfortable with making (not that Smith needs any nudging to push the ball, see tweet below), Smith simply checks the ball down to Charbonnet, who promptly rumbles for a first down and a fresh set of plays. He also beats a closing pass rush, avoiding a negative play.

Now Smith clips usually feature him firing a Hadoken through a small window to a receiver a few dozen yards downfield. Like this tractor beam against the Arizona Cardinals (the throw went to the right player in the progression, I promise):

But the Smith play against the Bengals provides something that Darnold can glean from and provide him a proton pack in case any ghosts start showing up. This offense thrives with staying on schedule. And when it is time to drop back, you might as well have Bill Belichick’s “do your job” mantra screaming through the quarterback’s brain. A smart play like a checkdown is a great way to get on base as a quarterback, rather than try to tilt the shoulder back and swing for the fence every single time.

Time (and tape) are still on the side of Brock Purdy

The sky is not falling in the Bay Area. The Cleveland Browns played well in Week 6, but the 49ers moved the ball on the ground on the vaunted Browns defense through the first half until Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey got hurt. And they were still in position to win the game despite not moving the ball in the second half.

The 49ers — and Brock Purdy — continuously marched on the Minnesota Vikings this past Monday night, too, ripping off 19 first downs (and none from penalties) on only 53 plays. The 49ers faced only two third-and-longs (7-plus yards to go) the entire night and converted on five of the nine total third downs they attempted.

Purdy had a better passing success rate in Week 7 against the Vikings than he did Week 5 against the Cowboys. In fact, in terms of dropback success rate, it was the fourth-best single-game performance by a quarterback in the NFL this entire season. And while the 49ers' run game was quite efficient throughout the evening, it was not prolific whatsoever, with only one explosive run (a designed rushing play with a gain of 12-plus yards). The 49ers were forced to find their big gains through the air.

But turnovers, and an offensive play-caller and quarterback firing on all cylinders like Kevin O’Connell and Kirk Cousins, were enough to give the 49ers that second tally in the "L" column. You cannot completely dismiss the late interceptions that Purdy threw, but he had a good showing until those moments. (Plus a McCaffrey fumble in the red zone, and another miss by kicker Jake Moody. Best to get the bad rolls out now in this crapshoot we call the NFL season.)

The 49ers have their bye week next week, which could allow Purdy to sit for two weeks and not rush back before facing the Jacksonville Jaguars (who have a feisty defense this year!) in a juicy Week 10 brouhaha.

Do Shanahan and the 49ers' skill players help Purdy? Absolutely. It's why I can never hold a spot for him when talking about the league’s best nor as a realistic MVP candidate. (If it’s anyone from this offense to nominate, it would be McCaffrey.)

Despite those turnovers, he has played well way more often than not, even in a game perceived as one of his worst.

Purdy has a willingness to push the ball, but will have misses. He simply hasn't been punished on those plays as often as he should. He regressed at a brutal time in Week 7. But his performance before has not been as bad as the post-island game narrative might have made it seem. Even if I am excited about what Darnold will look like in this 49ers offense, like seeing how a bucking thoroughbred will race with blinkers on for the first time. One start would almost certainly not be enough for Shanahan and the 49ers to switch horses mid-race. (I think so, anyways.)

Even if it’s for one game, it will be fun to watch this experiment play out. Darnold has a lot of talent and he provides interesting skills, even if it’s just a premium store brand (traits-wise) version of what Purdy has been providing since he took over the job. I think Shanahan has no issues with trying Darnold on for a whirl. And a test like the Bengals' defense with Anarumo calling plays provides a potential for a few theories and lingering questions to be answered about quarterbacks and their team situations. And I’m sure a few more questions will remain for us to ask afterward.

I mean look at this:

How worried should Dolphins, Bills and Lions be?

Now back to the other three playoff favorites that lost in Week 7 in somewhat alarming fashion. For the Dolphins and Bills, it’s just about getting healthy. The Dolphins' offensive line injuries hindered their run game against a stout Eagles defensive front, which has a trickle down effect of bad on Miami's entire offense. And really just the entire Dolphins team in general needs to get healthy. Even Tyreek Hill showed up on the injury report Wednesday.

For the Bills, it’s their defense, with injuries to key players forcing reconfigurations on the fly. They even experimented with a little dime personnel (six defensive backs) to give themselves some semblance of an answer in this new post-Matt Milano injury world. Their offense had a slow start against the Patriots, but they have constantly moved the ball against opponents. I know Bills fans view offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey like Bobby Boucher’s mama viewed Vicki Vallencourt, but he’s actually a good play-caller and the reconfigurations the Bills' offense have sprinkled in — diversifying the run game and personnel groupings (make sure to check out second-year wide receiver Khalil Shakir getting more run) — have allowed them to succeed in different ways. They’re up there in all of the underlying metrics.

It’s been good. The offensive line is improved, even if it’s not among the league’s best. Mitch Morse can have a brutal lapse every once in a while. Of course Josh Allen can be chaotic, but the offensive changes have provided safeguards so things don’t spiral too much. But when they need Allen to go berserk, they let him go. And he is only a strong performance or two (with the Bills winning as well) from launching himself right back into the MVP discussion.

The Lions, meanwhile, would be best not going against Lamar Jackson having one of the best games of his NFL career as a passer. Jackson finished with his best single-game performance in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback ever, among games with 30 or more dropbacks. With most of his damage coming from the pocket, Jackson has been devastating operating within structure, and still able to provide a few moments of that Lamar magic — like a nearly 10-second runaround touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor:

The Lions have a potential get-right game coming up on Monday night against the Las Vegas Raiders. Their defensive backs room keeps battling injuries but hopefully can get some consistency. And their offense could use improved health in the running backs room, where David Montgomery’s ability as a pass protector (teams will keep testing Jahmyr Gibbs when he’s in there) and down-to-down efficiency as a rusher help keep the Lions on schedule.