Tony Awards Predictions 2024: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

With important discussions raised recently about whether (and which) new categories should be added to the Tony Awards competition — Hair, Wig & Makeup? Casting? Ensemble? Projections? — allow me an unimportant one: Best Coin Toss, because that’s what so many predictors will rely on for a season crammed with excellent nominees.

Sarah Paulson or Jessica Lange? Coin toss. Appropriate? Purlie Victorious? An Enemy of the People? Coin toss, coin toss, coin toss. Five cast members of Stereophonic? Get plenty of change.

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But Tony predictions are as much a part of the annual Broadway tradition as red carpets and go-for-broke musical numbers. So with that in mind, I’ll get on with the coins, the hair-splitting and more than a few passionate opinions. Here is Deadline’s annual roster of predictions for the 2024 Tony Awards, airing this Sunday evening on CBS.

BEST PLAY

Will win: Stereophonic
Should win: Stereophonic

Both Paula Vogel’s Mother Play and Amy Herzog’s Mary Jane were incredibly moving explorations of familial bonds, obligations and sacrifices, while Jocelyn Bioh’s Jaja’s African Hair Braiding was a joyous presentation of Black identity, community, heritage and, no small feat, the single greatest argument for the creation of a hair and wig Tony category. And in any other year, Joshua Harmon’s searing Prayer for the French Republic could be a shoo-in.

But this year belongs to David Adjmi’s Stereophonic, and any other Best Play winner would be one of Sunday’s biggest surprises. As unlikely a Broadway hit to come along in years, Stereophonic is, on its surface, a clever, barely disguised roman à clef about ’70s rock giants Fleetwood Mac and the troubled making of the band’s masterpiece Rumours, but Adjmi is after so much more. A meditation on creative temperament, toxic masculinity (and its costs to both women and men), artistic collaboration versus individual genius and the unexpected costs of fame and success, Stereophonic is a marvel, from its writing, performances, set and costume design to its uncannily authentic-sounding score. It’s Broadway’s rock star of 2024.

BEST MUSICAL

Will win: Hell’s Kitchen
Should win: Illinoise

The first coin toss of this list. Strong arguments could be made for the gorgeous Suffs, audience favorite The Outsiders and dark horse possibility Water for Elephants. I think Hell’s Kitchen, the Alicia Keys bio-musical, will edge them out through sheer force of Big Musical power.

But I’d like to see Illinoise take the trophy. The combination of Sufjan Stevens’ music and Justin Peck’s choreography made this dance-theater hybrid an experience both exciting and tender. Perhaps an even more unlikely Broadway resident than Stereophonic, the dialogue-free Illinoise arrived at the very last minute for Tony eligibility, a rousing end to a very busy, very tiring spring season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Will win: Appropriate
Should win: Appropriate

As deserving of recognition as the eye-opening, long-in-coming revival of Purlie Victorious was, and as stirring as An Enemy of the People is, the revival of Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ Appropriate is this year’s stunner. Led by the amazing Sarah Paulson, this tale of a shattered family reuniting to settle an estate (and confront past horrors both familial and historical), Appropriate was one of the powerhouses of the 2023-24 Broadway season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Will win: Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Merrily We Roll Along

Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club will have its defenders, Gutenberg! has its die-hards and The Who’s Tommy is beloved by the My Generation generation, but Maria Friedman’s revelatory staging of Merrily We Roll Along, long considered an unequivocal Sondheim failure, is as close to a sure thing as this year’s Tonys get. Perhaps the greatest tribute the late genius composer has ever received.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY LEADING ACTOR/PLAY

Will win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious
Should win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

This is going to be a close one. Jeremy Strong (An Enemy of the People) is the likely favorite, and William Jackson Harper is by far the strongest element of Lincoln Center Theater’s Uncle Vanya revival. But Odom has done an effective job lately of reminding Tony voters just how fantastic he was in last fall’s Purlie Victorious. Like Merrily We Roll Along, Ossie Davis’ 1961 comedic play about a traveling Black preacher in the small-town South of the 1950s had gone unloved, or at least ignored, for years. Odom’s performance, along with that of his co-star Kara Young, rescued this very fine play from undeserved obscurity.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS/PLAY

Will win: Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Should win: Jessica Lange, Mother Play

A painful choice, and the clearest example of a coin toss on this list. Both Paulson and Lange were unforgettable in their commanding performances, and either could win the Tony with absolutely no complaints from me. I’ll give Lange the slightest of edges if only for that 12-minutes of silent desperation that was Mother Play‘s most wrenching scene. More-than-honorable mentions to Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic), Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane) and Amy Ryan (Doubt: A Parable) — the latter a last-minute replacement for an ailing Tyne Daly, no less — all of whom merely had the bad luck to arrive in a season alongside Lange and Paulson.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR/MUSICAL

Will win: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses

Groff pretty much has this locked, and for good reason: His performance as Merrily We Roll Along‘s self-centered Franklin Shepard was riveting and immensely likable. But James, as a Mad Men-era alcoholic desperately trying to save his family and himself from utter desolation, was unrivaled this season in sheer power.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS/MUSICAL

Will win: Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Should win: Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

The terrific young newcomer Maleah Joi Moon (Hell’s Kitchen) could take the trophy Sunday, and no one could complain. Still, I suspect Plunkett, a longtime Broadway favorite, will get the win. She took home a Tony in 1987, and Tony voters might well think she’s overdue for another.

But my hands-down choice would be O’Hara, and for the same reasons as her Days of Wine and Roses co-star Brian d’Arcy James. Her performance as a co-dependent alcoholic mother was harrowing, her singing otherworldly.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR/PLAY

Will win: Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Should win: Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic

It’s entirely possible that the three Stereophonic actors up for this award — one as deserving as the next — will cancel one another out, leaving Appropriate‘s Corey Stoll, who more than held his own against the mighty Sarah Paulson, and Mother Play‘s Jim Parsons (ever-popular, but dark horse this year) to triumph.

Picking one of the Stereophonic actors over the others is something of a fool’s errand — they’re all that good. Eli Gelb, who played the hapless, put-upon engineer Grover, might have the edge: His character is the most likable and relatable, his performance note-perfect. Will Brill’s performance as the often-drunk, lovesick bass player Reg is perfection. But for me, Tom Pecinka as the domineering, toxic, tormented songwriting genius Peter is the performance (at least among the men, see below for the women) that most gets under the skin. Like the man who inspired the character — looking at you, Lindsey — he’s not the easiest to love, but his weird mix of arrogance, envy, narcissism, romantic pathos and musical brilliance can’t be ignored.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS/PLAY

Will win: Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Should win: Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic

Before Stereophonic‘s arrival in April, I would have put Kara Young of Purlie Victorious in the Will Win and Should Win categories, and I still won’t be disappointed if she takes the award. She’s made an indelible imprint on Broadway during the past several years, first in 2021’s Clyde’s and the next year in Cost of Living. She topped both performances with her hilarious turn as the irrepressible Lutiebelle Gussie Mae Jenkins opposite Leslie Odom Jr. in Purlie Victorious.

And while Quincy Tyler Bernstine (Doubt: A Parable), Juliana Canfield (Stereophonic) and Celia Keenan-Bolger (Mother Play) were spot-on in their supporting roles, Sarah Pidgeon as the Stevie-esque Diana delivers the season’s best. Insecure, bullied by her bandmate and lover, initially tentative in her music-making, Pidgeon’s Diana ever-so-gradually emerges from cocoon to full-fledged gold dust woman rock star right before our eyes.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR/MUSICAL

Will win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

Roger Bart, Joshua Boone, Brandon Victor Dixon, Steven Skybell and Sky Lakota-Lynch, every one a deserving nominee, would do well to practice their game faces. Daniel Radcliffe, as Merrily‘s idealistic lyricist and playwright Charley Kringas, gives a showstopping performance in a musical revival loaded with them. His note-perfect performance of Sondheim’s infamously tongue-twisting patter song “Franklin Shepard, Inc.” is not only a highlight of this production but of the entire 2023-24 Broadway season.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS/MUSICAL

Will win: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen or Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot

Another difficult choice. Lindsay Mendez could well give Merrily a clean sweep for the show’s starry trio (along with Jonathan Groff and Daniel Radcliffe), but two other performances get my vote. Kecia Lewis, as the elderly musical mentor to a young Alicia Keys, was both a heart-tugger and a vocal showcase. No surprise if Tony voters give her the nod over Mendez, whose character is, fairly or not, overshadowed by the two men in the friendship triangle.

And while Shoshana Bean (Hell’s Kitchen), Amber Iman (Lempicka), Nikki M. James (Suffs) and the beloved Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club) had their standout moments, I’m torn between Lewis and long-shot Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, whose performance as the Lady of the Lake in the underappreciated Monty Python’s Spamalot delivered the funny show’s funniest moment with her solo “Diva’s Lament/Whatever Happened to My Part?” I doubt Tony voters will remember this show or this performance on Sunday, but I will.

And Some Quick Takes:

BEST DIRECTOR/PLAY

Will win: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
Should win: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

BEST DIRECTOR/MUSICAL

Will win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Will win: Justin Peck, Illinoise
Should win: Justin Peck, Illinoise

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Will win: Shaina Taub, Suffs
Should win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Shaina Taub, Suffs
Should win: Will Butler, Stereophonic

BEST SCENIC DESIGN/PLAY

Will win: dots, Appropriate
Should win: David Zinn, Stereophonic

BEST SCENIC DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Should win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/PLAY

Will win: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Should Win: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Should win: Paul Tazewell, Suffs

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/PLAY

Will win: Jane Cox, Appropriate
Should win: Natasha Katz, Grey House

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will win: Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Should win: Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

BEST SOUND DESIGN/PLAY

Will win: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic
Should win: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

BEST SOUND DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will win: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Should win: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:

Will win: Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell’s Kitchen
Should win: Timo Andres, Illinoise, or Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic

The 77th Annual Tony Awards airs live Sunday, June 16 (8-11 p.m., ET/5-8 p.m. PT) on CBS, streaming on Paramount+ in the U.S. The Tony Awards: Act One live pre-show with exclusive content including the presentation of the first round of Tony Awards, will be available to viewers for free on Pluto TV beginning Sunday, June 16, at 6:30-8 p.m. ET/3:30-5 p.m. PT.

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