UFC 291 odds: Slight lean to Dustin Poirier over Justin Gaethje in BMF bout

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje fought in a memorable bout in 2018 — it seems every fight each of these intimidating lightweights takes is, at the very least, memorable — in a bout that, hardly surprisingly, earned Fight of the Night honors.

Both were beaten up badly at the end of the third round of the bout in Glendale, Arizona — so much so that Gaethje had good reason to believe he was on the verge of finishing Poirier and Poirier had every bit as much right to believe he was on the verge of finishing Gaethje.

There will be more contact in the rematch than there is an NFL playoff game.

This time, though, the stakes have been raised. Poirier and Gaethje will rematch Saturday in the main event of UFC 291 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, for the BMF title. The winner will be well-positioned for one more shot at the lightweight title. The loser probably won't get another crack given the worthy contenders and the number of chances they've had.

Poirier beat Max Holloway and Gaethje beat Tony Ferguson in bouts for the interim lightweight belt. But both lost regular title bouts to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira.

So in addition to the BMF title, which is largely for legacy, there is a lot at stake because the loser's dreams of winning a lightweight title will be largely extinguished.

At BetMGM, Poirier is -145 favorite while Gaethje is +120.

I often bet over-under in close fights like this, but I'm going to avoid that because, even with both fighters thinking more defensively, the bout is still going to be chaos. All it takes is one punch, knee, elbow or kick for the fight to end in an instant. So it doesn't make much sense to risk a wager on that when it could happen in the first round or it could happen in the fifth.

Instead, I'm going to lay the money and take Poirier to win. I think he's had a slight edge in strength of schedule over the last six fights — Conor McGregor twice, Chandler, Oliveira, Nurmagomedov and Dan Hooker for Poirier compared to Rafael Fiziev, Oliveira, Chandler, Nurmagomedov, Ferguson, and Donald Cerrone for Gaethje — and that could be the difference.

He's a little better with the footwork and has perhaps a touch better chin.

It could go either way, but I'll lay the money, play Poirier and sit back and watch what should be an incredible fight.

Can Alex Pereira get it done against Jan Blachowicz?

The co-main event pits former middleweight champion Alex Pereira in his light heavyweight debut against former 205-pound king Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz is a -130 favorite, with Pereira at even money.

Blachowicz's wrestling is the big key here. Pereira is tough to get down, but if Blachowicz manages to do so, he has a huge advantage on the ground. Pereira is not going to outpoint Blachowicz in a grappling contest; period, end of story.

But I doubt it is a grappling bout. And while Blachowicz is more than adept on his feet, I love having that crushing power that Pereira owns going for me. He could be getting beaten up for three or four rounds, land one shot and the fight is over.

I'll take the even money and play Pereira to win.

Other plays for UFC 291

• I'll lay the -145 and take Kevin Holland to win over Michael Chiesa.
• Going with another favorite, I'll lay -155 and take Stephen Thompson to defeat Michel Pereira.
• I'll take the +175 and play Uros Medic to defeat Matthew Semelsberger.