UFC betting, odds: Is Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen main event priced correctly?
A monster card in Miami delivered in a big way last weekend at UFC 287. Israel Adesanya's iconic knockout of Alex Pereira completed his quest to recapture the middleweight crown. It's a moment that will certainly remain etched in the sport's history for quite some time. As much as I would like to replay it over and over again, the odds, much like time, never stand still.
We are on to Kansas City. The T-Mobile Center will host a 14-fight card headlined by a five-round featherweight war between former title-holder and No. 2-ranked Max Holloway and England's rising contender, No. 4 Arnold Allen, who is undefeated in UFC competition. This is Holloway's first fight since a five-round unanimous decision loss to current champion and No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the promotion Alexander Volkanovski. The fight closed the door on a trilogy that saw Volkanovski hand Holloway his only three featherweight losses over the past nine years.
Holloway is 16-3 as a featherweight since dropping a decision back in 2013 to Conor McGregor. He dominated the division for almost a decade with unmatched hand speed, volume and durability. Max holds records for the most knockouts in the division's history (8), the most total significant strikes landed in the history of UFC competition (2,975), as well as a single-fight record against Calvin Kattar, where he punished Kattar with an unprecedented 445 significant strikes over five rounds.
In October, Arnold "Almighty" Allen (10-0 UFC) earned this shot by defeating Kattar. Allen won by TKO after Kattar's knee injury forced a stop to the fight in Round 2. He was clearly getting the best of the Kattar, but the injury stoppage leaves a bit of mystery of how Allen can perform over five rounds against the division's elite. Allen enters the main event as a +150 underdog while betting Holloway will cost you -185.
The UFC has done a phenomenal job of giving us some wildly entertaining main events on Fight Night cards, and this might be the best one of the year. Here is how I'm getting in on the action.
Max Holloway (-185) vs. Arnold Allen (+150)
Allen certainly deserves this opportunity, but his implied odds at 40% are giving him too much credit. When fighters are still entering their primes, as Allen is, projecting their leap in improvement between each fight can be very profitable when done accurately. You can bet them at a great price before they showcase their ability to punch up in competition. The Kattar fight was that spot for Allen, where he opened as +150 underdog. This Saturday night he holds the same price tag against one of the most decorated featherweights in the promotion's history. There is a world where Allen's lateral movement and powerful straight left stifle Holloway enough to set up enough grappling success to win rounds, but it's not 40% likely to become a reality.
Holloway's output, cardio and durability are almost superhuman by any standards. However, Max has a lot of mileage on him, and his traits inevitably will decline at some point. That's the only risk in backing Max. The main event's most likely outcome is Allen falling victim to Holloway's overwhelming accuracy and volume. Max is one of a kind when it comes to landing his straight right, digging into the body and switching up his stance before unleashing another devastating barrage of blows. Allen has shown the willingness to engage, but he was also dangerously close to ending up on the wrong side of a firefight with Dan Hooker. If this were three rounds, I might be able to make sense of this price. But I see Allen really struggling to keep up in his likely first experience fighting more than three rounds. Holloway's last eight fights have entered Round 4, and the former featherweight champ has mastered his pacing over five rounds. My money is on Holloway battering the rising contender and proving he is still one of the best in a stacked featherweight division. The bet: Max Holloway -185
