UFC betting: Where to find value on Saturday's UFC Fight Night card
It's been an unusual few weeks for mixed martial arts fans without fights going off every weekend, but the action is returning with six straight events that will carry us through mid-November.
Saturday night's UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo features a five-round main event between two women's flyweight contenders looking to push themselves one step closer to a title shot. The 12-fight card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, gives bettors a nice blend of up-and-coming prospects and veterans climbing back up the rankings.
Projecting a fighter's trajectory as they enter their prime can be a significant advantage in getting ahead of the market. As a result, these smaller cards can become easier targets for bettors despite the lack of star power. Here are two plays I found valuable at the current odds at BetMGM. Let's start with the main event.
Alexa Grasso (-225) vs. Viviane Araujo (+185)
They say the third time is the charm. These two flyweight contenders have been trying to fight each other the entire year, with previous bouts in January and August scrapped due to injury and visa issues. So now, I finally get to cash in on a very advantageous matchup for the favorite. Alexa Grasso is an impressive 3-0 since moving up to the flyweight division and is coming off a first-round submission win over Joanne Wood. While I am not sold she possesses the finishing ability to be a future champion, she continues to show marked improvement each time she steps inside the Octagon. This fight is the perfect test for her to showcase her maturity as a fighter ready to take that next step.
Grasso wins with volume over power, using her footwork to stay one step ahead of her opponent. In addition, she utilizes her leg kicks well, which will be a key factor against the more aggressive Araujo. The five-round duration of the fight allows her to strategically set traps and fire off counters, exposing Araujo's defensive liabilities. Grasso is the far superior defensive fighter who absorbs only 3.79 significant strikes per minute, a big difference from Araujo's 5.13.
After the first few rounds, the damage will accumulate, forcing Araujo into sloppy entries as she gets desperate to get inside on Grasso. However, I feel strongly that will only leave her exasperated as Grasso gains confidence as the more technical striker. Araujo will quickly realize getting the fight to the mat is her only option, but whether it's a sustainable one will make all the difference. It's hard to envision her controlling Grasso enough to win three out of five rounds without taxing her own cardio to point to where it compromises that facet of her game. Araujo's last six fights went to the scorecards, and this will likely become the seventh. Grasso's gameplan to stay at range and extend the fight into the later rounds supports the likely outcome of this fight going to the judges. So let's get off the big price tag and take a shot with Grasso by decision at plus money.
The Bet: Alexa Grasso by decision (+125)
Alonzo Menifield (-200) vs. Misha Cirkunov (+180)
Menifield is a power puncher who has had mixed results in his UFC career, which may not last much longer if he can't put Cirkunov away. Cirkunov has lost three straight fights, and there are a couple of red flags with the 35-year-old Canadian. First, he is switching weight classes very late in his career. Secondly, Cirkunov has been finished in three of his last four losses. So now, he faces a fighter with massive power in his return fight to a heavier weight class. I don't see this ending well for Cirkunov at all.
Menifield is vulnerable to getting taken down and controlled, but I am willing to bet he has adequate takedown defense to hold off Cirkunov. Considering Cirkunov doesn't have the technical striking to set up his takedowns, it should be fairly easy for Menifield to avoid his telegraphed shots. The stylistic matchup sets up nicely for the favorite. I bet the moneyline at -200, and I will be interested in putting a small stake on the KO prop as well.
The Bet: Alonzo Menifield (-200)
Stats provided by ufcstats.com
