UFC Kansas City betting, odds: Edson Barboza-Billy Quarantillo co-main event could end in fireworks
It seems almost too easy to pick the under in the fight between Edson Barboza and Billy Quarantillo on Saturday in the co-main event of UFC Kansas City at the T-Mobile Center. In Quarantillo's 21 professional bouts, 14 have ended by finish and seven have gone to decision. In Barboza's 33 fights, 20 have ended inside the distance.
Given their aggressive, attack-oriented styles, there seems almost no way that the judges will be able to screw this one up. It looks almost certain like a fight that ends before the final bell.
The numbers, though, give pause. It's even money to go the distance and is -135 to finish inside the distance. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, and over is the favorite, at -125. Under 2.5 rounds is -105.
Quarantillo, who is 10-2 in his last 12 bouts, is the favorite at -175, with Barboza at +150 as the underdog. Barboza, though, has clearly faced the more difficult opposition and has been in there with the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Beneil Dariush, Justin Gaethje, Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis, among others.
That counts for something, no doubt. But they're also fighters seemingly headed in opposite directions. After his eight-fight winning streak, Quarantillo has gone 2-2. Barboza has lost his last two and five of his last seven. Two of those five defeats have been knockout losses.
I'm not sure I want to back a guy who has won only two of his last seven, even at an attractive price like +150. So I'm going to pass on the side.
I don't think this fight goes the distance given their styles. Even if he is in decline, Barboza's kicks are brutal and take a significant toll on nearly everyone he fights. Quarantillo is almost certainly going to be walking gingerly Sunday, win or lose Saturday.
So that leads me to my choice to lay two units on No at -135 on the prop bet that asks, "Will the fight go the distance?" Thus, I'll lay $270 in an attempt to win $200. I lean toward Quarantillo winning the bout, but I have no interest in laying nearly 9-5 on him, so I'll stick with the under.
Holloway looks good in main event
Former featherweight champion Max Holloway is in tough again — What else is new? — on Saturday when he meets Arnold Allen in the main event. Holloway is a -175 to get back in the win column, with Allen at +150.
This is a good spot for Holloway. He hasn't lost to a non-champion since he was beaten by Dennis Bermudez in 2013, and he's built an argument for himself as one of the greatest featherweights of all-time.
Allen, a dynamic young striker who is looking to make a statement with a win over a legend, is the perfect foil for him to show he belongs at the top and in contention for a future title shot.
Holloway, though, hasn't had a finish since he decimated Brian Ortega in 2018 in Toronto. He's 3-4 since then, with three losses to reigning featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski and a loss to Dustin Poirier in an interim lightweight title fight. He's won decisions over Frankie Edgar, Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez in that span. All seven fights went to the cards.
So Holloway by decision looks very appealing. He's at +175 to win by decision, so I'll wager two units on him, risking $200 for the possibility of a $350 win.
Other bets
• I'll take the plus money on Pedro Munhoz (+165) and bet him to win over Chris Gutierrez.
• I'll take the +115 and bet on Joselyne Edwards to win over Lucie Pudilova.
