UFC London odds, picks: Tom Aspinall figures to get it done, but don't expect a quick finish
Tom Aspinall has been reluctant this week to say the two words — Jon Jones — that his fans have been desperate to hear him say. The emerging British heavyweight star, who faces 10th-ranked Marcin Tybura Saturday at the O2 Arena in the main event of UFC London, has been reticent to divert any of his attention from the task in front of him.
Jones is the UFC heavyweight champion and will defend his title against ex-champion Stipe Miocic in New York in November. Aspinall, who is No. 5 at heavyweight, would position himself for a bout with the winner with an impressive showing against Tybura. A win could also lead him into a hotly anticipated No. 1 contender's bout with top-ranked Sergei Pavlovich.
A lot is riding on the outcome of the fight with Tybura, which is probably why Aspinall had to be prodded by numerous reporters to finally speak of his desire to fight Jones. Aspinall, who is coming off a serious knee injury that kept him sidelined for a year, is a healthy -450 favorite to defeat Tybura.
The odds are so strong in Aspinall's favor that he's -160 to win by knockout and as low as +275 to win by submission over Tybura, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. The over-under in the five-round fight is only 1.5 rounds, with under a solid, if not stunning, -165 favorite.
My first play on this fight is over 1.5 rounds, which is +135. While Aspinall is a superb athlete, a well-rounded fighter and a deserving favorite, Tybura is no slouch. He's won seven of his last eight and only once in a career that has carried him to a 24-7 record has he been finished in less than a round-and-a-half. In his 11 UFC wins, he's only finished two of them in less than a round-and-a-half.
So I'll lay two units on the over 1.5 rounds at +135.
I like Aspinall to win the fight because he's more well-rounded, far more explosive and has the advantage of an extremely supportive home crowd backing him. I was tempted to take the +1400 and bet Aspinall to win by decision, but I'm only 50-50 on if the fight goes that long. I hate to pick the right guy and still lose my bet, so I'll swallow hard, lay the -450 and bet Aspinall to win. That seems the safest route.
Can 'Meatball Molly' get it done again at home?
Molly McCann is coming off a loss to Erin Blanchfield by submission at UFC 281 in New York in November, though there's hardly any shame in losing to Blanchfield, one of the women's bantamweight division's rising stars.
On Saturday, she'll face Julija Stoliarenko in the co-main event. McCann is a -210 favorite, with Stoliarenko at +180. Stoliarenko has done nothing to show she's a UFC-quality fighter. She's 10-7-2 overall, but is just 1-5 in the UFC. She lost in her debut in 2018 in "The Ultimate Fighter" finale, was cut and then was brought back in 2020 after winning five in a row on the regional circuit.
But once she got back to the UFC, she struggled. She lost her first three bouts back before stunning Jessica-Rose Clark with an armbar in just 42 seconds of their bout on July 2, 2022, at UFC 276 in Las Vegas. But Stoliarenko couldn't put a winning streak together and was stopped in the first round by Chelsea Chandler in her next outing.
Stoliarenko has been finished in four of her seven losses. McCann has finished six of her 13 wins, so I'm going to play under 2.5 rounds and lay the -155. I'll also lay the -210 and play McCann to win.
Stoliarenko will be fighting for her UFC career, but she's shown no reason to believe she can get it done on the road against someone of McCann's caliber. In McCann's last two bouts in London, where she has a loud and passionate fan base, she stopped Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy inside the distance.
Other picks for UFC London
• I will lay -110 and play the Makhmud Muradov-Bryan Barbarena fight to go over 2.5 rounds.
• I like Jony Parsons and will lay -105 on him to defeat Davey Grant.
• I will play the Parsons-Grant fight over 2.5 rounds and take the +120.
