UFC Vegas 76 betting: Grant Dawson's recent improvement makes him a smart play vs. Damir Ismagulov
Grant Dawson has only one loss and a draw in 21 career MMA fights, and he's 7-0-1 in the UFC after earning a contract following a win over Adrian Diaz in 2017 on "Dana White's Contender Series." Yet, despite all of the winning, there was always a lot of room for improvement in Dawson's game.
But he's clearly made that improvement and has a big spot Saturday in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 76 at Apex when he takes on Damir Ismagulov in an important lightweight battle. Dawson is ranked 15th in the UFC at 155, three spots behind the 12th-ranked Ismagulov.
The fight is even money both ways, with each fighter priced at -110. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, with over a -220 favorite. I like over here, but I'm not going to lay better than 2-1 on it. Under is +180.
Dawson won his last two bouts impressively, over Jared Gordon and Mark O. Madsen, though he missed weight against Madsen, a problem that has plagued him in his career. Those issues, though, were in short-notice bouts.
The biggest issue Dawson has to overcome is the accurate striking of Ismagulov. Dawson actually absorbs fewer strikes per minute than Ismagulov — Dawson absorbs 2.41 per minute compared to 2.51 for Ismagulov — but Ismagulov’s striking defense is 62 percent compared to just 42 percent for Dawson.
And given that Ismagulov has a three-inch reach advantage, a good jab and strong kicks, he’ll be able to touch Dawson.
Dawson’s grappling is very strong, as he showed in submitting Madsen, an Olympic silver medalist in 2016 in Greco-Roman wrestling.
It’s an important fight for Dawson, who would be verging on the top 10 with a win. I see him getting it done. I don’t think it’s a finish, though. I did consider Dawson by decision at +240, but it hurts to pick the right side and still lose the bet and Dawson is strong in the submission games.
Thus, I’ll lay the -110 and play Dawson to win.
Strickland takes on unranked opponent
Sean Strickland faces Abus Magomedov in the main event, a bout few expected to see. Strickland is ranked seventh at middleweight and wanted to fight someone above him, but those fighters were all booked.
Magomedov has one UFC fight — a 19-second KO of Dustin Stoltzfus in his debut last year in Paris, France — but is a solid veteran.
Strickland, though, has been regularly facing the best in the world and has cleaner striking than Magomedov.
It’s a close fight, and the number was moving in Magomedov’s favor early in the week so I’ll lay the -150 and take Strickland to win. Magomedov is +130.
Other plays for UFC Vegas 76
• Ismael Bonfim to win by TKO/KO (+175) over Benoit Saint-Denis.
• I’ll take Ariane Lipski at +185 to win over favored Melissa Gatto (-215).
• I’ll lay the -205 and play Rinat Fakhretdinov to win over Kevin Lee. (+175).
