Week 10 Wrap: 49ers return to fantasy football juggernaut form
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The 49ers rolled the Jaguars on a day Christian McCaffrey’s touchdown streak ended. San Francisco’s three-game losing streak also came to an end, as did Jacksonville’s five-game winning streak. Brock Purdy benefitted from his farm time during the bye (and also getting Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back) and rebounded with a sharp performance. He got 15.1 YPA with all three of his scores coming against the blitz and was especially impressive on throws downfield. Purdy looked healthier after the time off and didn’t turn the ball over after committing five over his previous two games. Purdy was fantasy’s No. 6 QB this week despite attempting just 26 passes, and his season YPA is up to 9.3.
McCaffrey had a nice day with 26 opportunities but failed to break the NFL record by scoring in his 18th straight game. It wasn’t without San Francisco trying, as he was given multiple carries and a target on fourth-and-goal late in a 34-3 blowout. CMC will look to start a new streak in Week 11 with San Francisco big favorites at home.
Samuel ran in a touchdown during his return, while Brandon Aiyuk scored on a play that’s typically intercepted. George Kittle added a long touchdown (what a pass by Purdy) as he, Samuel and Aiyuk all scored despite combining for just 11 targets (one fewer than CMC). The 49ers’ passing attack simply wasn’t needed much during a dominant defensive performance.
Trevor Lawrence committed three turnovers, was sacked a season-high five times and finished with a completion percentage over expectation (-6.8) in the 23rd percentile. The 49ers’ defense looks tough with new addition Chase Young (who combined with Nick Bosa to force a lost fumble by the QB), but Lawrence is on pace to total just 17 touchdowns this season. Jacksonville’s defense has played a lot better than its offense this year.
Travis Etienne suffered from the game script, while D’Ernest Johnson may have passed Tank Bigsby on the depth chart. Johnson saw touches during four plays in a row at one point (after entering with 12 on the season). Calvin Ridley once again took a backseat to Christian Kirk, who topped 100 yards and saw eight more targets than his teammate. The Jaguars may deserve a pass Sunday while facing a tough opponent coming off three straight losses, but their offense has deeper concerns, too. Both teams couldn’t have come out of their byes more differently.
The 49ers lost a pick-six thanks to an unsportsmanlike penalty, with even Kyle Shanahan going onto the field.
Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks’ much-talked-about move from the booth to the sidelines appeared to pay off (adding Young helped).
San Francisco had its NFL-high sixth straight opening drive TD, which was Jacksonville’s first allowed all season.
Jake Moody’s stat sheet looks clean, but he made each of his 30+ yard field goals by about one foot. In fairness, the rookie was iced by two TV timeouts during his second attempt, and there was some wind.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
The Lions outlasted the Chargers in a wild game that totaled 79 points, zero sacks and featured a whopping eight fourth-down attempts (seven successful).
Jahmyr Gibbs saw 19 opportunities and scored twice, including multiple carries (and a target) inside the 10. He converted a fourth-and-goal for a TD after David Montgomery failed. The electric rookie had 90 yards from scrimmage over the first 19 minutes in a huge game despite Montgomery’s return and against a Chargers defense that had been shutting down the run of late.
Montgomery had a great run on a fourth-and-five play in the first quarter and a 75-yard touchdown in the second. Detroit had 177 rushing yards at halftime — the most in the first half by a team since the early 1990s. The Lions produced two top-10 fantasy backs this week, and both are weekly top-15 options moving forward.
This matchup also produced this week’s No. 1 fantasy WR (Keenan Allen) and another in the top five (Amon-Ra St. Brown). St. Brown made a real nice catch in the second quarter and has four straight 100-yard games (and six in seven). Allen returned after making a trip to the locker room to have his shoulder checked out.
Jared Goff’s home/road splits matter less when indoors, and he got 10.1 YPA in a nearly flawless game Sunday.
Justin Herbert countered with four TD passes, finding Allen for a score during another fourth-down play. Herbert somehow lost while finishing with an EPA/play in the 92nd percentile.
Austin Ekeler continues to struggle running, as he’s yet to top 3.5 YPC in a game since Week 1. But he remains active as a receiver and scored his fourth touchdown over the last three games. Ekeler has 13 more touchdowns than anyone else since 2021.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
C.J. Stroud was fantastic yet again, ripping apart a solid Cincinnati pass defense (9.1 YPA) despite missing Nico Collins and Tank Dell suffering a late drop downfield. Stroud had performed better at home this season, but went into Cincinnati and moved the ball at will. The rookie wasn’t perfect while committing three turnovers, but he led a game-winning drive for the second straight week. He’s thrown for 826 yards over the last two games, leading Houston’s offense Sunday to the fourth-most explosive plays in a game since 2000. Sunday likely marked the last time people pick against Stroud in Survivor.
Stroud isn’t “going to be a star” — because he already is one.
Devin Singletary ran for a career-high 150 yards and was a top-three fantasy RB this week. He’s likely earned the 1A role in the Texans’ backfield (at minimum) once Dameon Pierce returns.
Dell returned after taking a big shot in the second quarter (and visiting the medical tent) and saw a career-high 14 targets with Collins out. Dell more than made up for his drop with multiple great plays and his third score over the last two weeks.
Noah Brown has finished top-three in receiving yards each of the last two weeks, as Robert Woods’ return didn’t slow him. Brown was shockingly good Sunday and made a terrific play breaking tackles on a late fourth-quarter catch. The extra yards made the game-winning field goal shorter for Houston’s backup kicker, and it appeared to be the difference in a make-or-miss.
Joe Burrow threw a couple of costly picks but continued to look healthy and otherwise played well. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in five straight games but now has a short turnaround in Baltimore.
Ja’Marr Chase’s first target came in the second quarter, as he was quiet until catching a long score late in the third.
Trenton Irwin caught an opening-drive touchdown on a beautifully thrown pass. Burrow would later miss a wide-open Irwin in the end zone late in the fourth quarter, as the Bengals snapped an NFL-high 20-game winning streak when leading after the first quarter.
Tanner Hudson had five catches on the opening drive (he had never had five catches in a game before) but finished with six catches for 33 yards.
Tyler Boyd suffered a bad drop in the third quarter that ended a drive instead of a long gain before costing Cincinnati the game with a brutal drop in the end zone late. The Bengals curiously forfeited second-and-goal (the play before Boyd’s fateful drop) with a Burrow sneak up the middle, ostensibly just to get Houston to use a timeout.
Adding injury to insult, Trey Hendrickson went down on the final defensive play before the game-winning field goal.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson got 9.7 YPA but struggled while throwing two picks. He missed a wide-open Zay Flowers on a would-be 41-yard touchdown in the second quarter and tossed a costly pick-six late. Jackson has struggled at times throughout his career versus man, a coverage Cleveland uses at the league’s third-highest rate. But he’s also averaging just 189.0 passing yards with only two total touchdowns over the last three games.
Keaton Mitchell became the first player in franchise history to record 35+ yard TD runs in back-to-back games with another electrifying score. The rookie’s speed jumps out on tape, and he turned five opportunities into 76 yards despite playing through a hamstring injury against an elite defense. Mitchell needs more touches to be trusted in fantasy lineups, but they are coming.
Justice Hill had a fourth-quarter TD run negated by penalty, while Mitchell drew a DPI in the end zone later that drive only to see Gus Edwards finally end it with a one-yard touchdown.
Odell Beckham Jr.’s first catch of the game was a third-quarter TD.
Deshaun Watson started 1-of-9 for 19 yards and a pick but caught fire in the second half, when he completed all 14 passes during the comeback win.
Jerome Ford is a good player (who will only get better the further he’s removed from his ankle sprain) who’s getting a bunch of opportunities in a favorable situation. He could be a real fantasy difference-maker down the stretch.
P.J. Walker entered to attempt a Hail Mary at the end of the first half, as Watson’s shoulder still isn’t 100% (he also left the stadium in a walking boot).
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
Derek Carr got fewer YPA (4.5) than New Orleans got YPC (5.9) at halftime and later left with a concussion/shoulder injury. Jameis Winston threw two interceptions and two touchdowns after replacing him in the third quarter, revitalizing Chris Olave’s fantasy value in the process.
Olave saw zero first-half targets but came alive after Winston entered, connecting on an impressive touchdown. Olave finished with a 9-6-94-1 line, and almost all of his production came from Winston. It’s huge news for Olave’s fantasy value should Winston start moving forward.
Game script hurt Alvin Kamara (and Taysom Hill), with New Orleans falling behind 24-3 in the second quarter. Kamara posted a season-high 4.7 YPC against a tough run defense, and secured all seven targets.
Joshua Dobbs had another sick TD run and continues to impress. The ”passtronaut” has rejuvenated Minnesota’s playoff hopes and has scored 20 fantasy points during five games this season.
T.J. Hockenson had 10 catches for 128 yards and a score by halftime, finishing as fantasy’s top tight end despite playing through painful injuries.
Ty Chandler scored his first career touchdown before Alexander Mattison departed in the third quarter after suffering a concussion. Chandler finished with nearly twice as many carries and had a long touchdown run in the fourth quarter negated by a holding penalty. Chandler is well worth adding off waiver wires, as Dobbs gives the Vikings’ offense juice.
Winston threw an insane touchdown to A.T. Perry.
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray didn’t throw a touchdown but was a top-12 fantasy QB anyway during his return from knee surgery. He was rusty at times but attacked downfield (average depth of target in the 81st percentile) and impressed with his legs. Murray benefitted from the matchup but also could’ve had a bigger fantasy day if not for losing a QB sneak TD to Clayton Tune. With solid weapons around him, Murray looks like a must-start fantasy QB moving forward.
James Conner looked good while dominating work during his return and is also a must-start from here on out.
Trey McBride finished second in targets (nine) and receiving yards (131) among tight ends this week during his first game with Murray, and he’s also now locked in fantasy lineups. Arizona is suddenly a fantasy hotbed!
Murray missed Marquise Brown for a potential long TD in the second quarter, as it was the same story with a different QB for Hollywood. Brown also drew a DPI but finished fourth on Arizona in targets, which was surprising considering the rapport he showed with Murray last season.
Bijan Robinson was given a career-high 22 carries, even vulturing a score at the five-yard line from Jonnu Smith. While obviously great news for Robinson’s fantasy value, we can only hope the team's loss doesn’t discourage Arthur Smith from similar future use.
Desmond Ridder replaced an injured Taylor Heinicke and ran in a late touchdown, as Atlanta enters its bye with QB questions and riding a three-game losing streak.
The winning field goal marked the game’s sixth lead change and was part of NFL history this week.
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith and Sam Howell both finished as top-five fantasy quarterbacks on Sunday. Smith’s 369 passing yards were a career high, while Howell was the answer in Superflex leagues this year. The Seahawks won, but it should be noted Howell’s matchup was far more difficult.
Kenneth Walker was out-snapped by Zach Charbonnet for the third straight game, but finished with 20 touches anyway, including catching a 64-yard touchdown.
DK Metcalf has 39 targets without a TD (or 100 yards) over his last four games.
Brian Robinson had a quiet game on the ground but led all receivers with 119 yards. He made multiple big catches, with one going for a score.
Boye Mafe recorded a sack for a franchise-record seventh straight game.
The Commanders have somehow allowed zero kickoff return yards this season.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott was Sunday's top fantasy scorer during another lopsided Dallas game. He threw for 400+ yards and four scores despite sitting the entire fourth quarter. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb eat up man, so this was an especially favorable matchup against a New York defense that uses the coverage at the league’s highest rate.
Lamb pulled in a terrific one-handed catch during his third straight monster performance. He also drew a DPI and could’ve had an even bigger day in a more competitive game. Given his new role, Lamb looks like a top-three fantasy WR moving forward.
Meanwhile, Tony Pollard finished as the RB34 this week with his team scoring 49 points and totaling 640 yards with three rushing scores. It was more of the same, with Pollard being stopped inside the two-yard line three separate times. He’s undoubtedly been unlucky without a score since Week 1, but Pollard deserves plenty of the blame, too. Rico Dowdle got 24 more rushing yards on three fewer carries Sunday and will continue to eat into the disappointing Pollard’s work. What a fantasy bust.
The Giants were losing 68-0 to the Cowboys this season before Tommy DeVito tossed two garbage-time touchdowns in the second half. DeVito was not good, but he also never stood a chance while being pressured on 18 of his first 27 dropbacks. Andrew Thomas returned after being carted to the locker room, but this offensive line is a disaster.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were outgained for their ninth consecutive game yet improved to 6-3.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren dominated Pittsburgh’s offense, accounting for 59% of the team’s total yards. Each back had more carries than Kenny Pickett had pass attempts, with both finishing as top-10 fantasy RBs in Week 10.
Pickett missed an open George Pickens for a would-be long gain early in the first quarter, while Diontae Johnson had just one catch despite no Jaire Alexander.
TJ Watt has the second-most sacks over his first 100 games in NFL history.
Aaron Jones had a quiet game but saw another 19 opportunities, while Jayden Reed pulled down a nice touchdown from Jordan Love.
Christian Watson belongs firmly on fantasy benches.
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders won again under new coach Antonio Pierce during a game highlighted by poor quarterback play.
Las Vegas continued to go run-heavy since Josh McDaniels was fired. Josh Jacobs lost a fumble but broke 100 rushing yards for the first time this season. Jacobs has a whopping 53 carries over the last two weeks.
Davante Adams was targeted on 11 of Aidan O’Connell’s 17 passes in the first half, finishing with 13. Adams had an extremely tough matchup, but the volume he’s seeing from AO’C will lead to big games in the future.
Zach Wilson threw an awful fourth-quarter pick but led New York in rushing and nearly completed a miraculous Hail Mary at the end of the game. Still, he continues to badly hurt the fantasy values of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Hall is responsible for New York's three touchdowns over its last five games.
G. Wilson has averaged 13.0 targets over the last four games, although he didn’t top 100 yards or score during any of them. He’s a top-25 fantasy wide receiver who could be top-five with a different quarterback.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield got a season-high 9.6 YPA, as the Buccaneers won easily despite a rest (and coaching) disadvantage.
Rachaad White took a screen to the house and had a fantastic third-quarter run. Few running backs are seeing his volume.
Mike Evans dropped the easiest touchdown of the day but would score later during a big performance.
Derrick Henry was shut down by a surging Tampa Bay run defense, while Will Levis took a step back. Levis’ shaky play ruined a prime matchup for DeAndre Hopkins, who couldn’t do much with eight targets.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (Germany)
Gardner Minshew peppered Michael Pittman Jr. (who may have been robbed of a TD on a play that wasn’t reviewed/challenged) with 12 targets, while Jonathan Taylor scored the game’s lone touchdown. Taylor saw 24 opportunities while Zack Moss saw just one, so it was a big win for JT despite the modest box score.
Mac Jones is dealing with an awful offensive line, but he threw a backbreaking fourth-quarter pick. He then missed Mike Gesicki open for a touchdown and was replaced by Bailey Zappe during the team’s final drive. Zappe proceeded to throw an interception after a fake spike. Neither Jones nor Zappe will be New England’s quarterback in 2024.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 40 opportunities, although neither scored against a Colts defense allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league.
