Will Biden’s support for Israel cost him the 2024 election?
What’s happening
President Biden easily won the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan on Tuesday, but a significant share of his party’s voters used the election as an opportunity to express their anger over his support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
More than 100,000 Michigan Democrats cast their ballots as “uncommitted,” with many seeking to pressure Biden to call for a ceasefire to end the Israeli military’s ongoing assault on the Palestinian territory, which has killed an estimated 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza since it started in early October.
“We need Joe Biden to listen to the voice of Michiganders,” said Layla Elabed, the campaign manager for one group seeking to pressure Biden, to the New York Times. “Listen to the voice of his core constituents and demand a permanent ceasefire now.”
Biden, a steadfast supporter of Israel throughout his lengthy political career, has consistently asserted Israel’s “right to defend itself” in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and has urged Congress to approve billions in additional military aid to bolster the campaign. At the same time, he has publicly urged the Israelis to practice restraint and has reportedly been much more forceful in private while seeking to help negotiate a temporary pause in hostilities.
Polls show that Americans as a whole are generally unhappy with the way Biden has handled the conflict. But that discontent is especially pronounced within key segments of the Democratic base, particularly young voters and people of color. Michigan, a critical swing state with the highest share of Arab American voters in the country, was widely viewed as the first real test of how damaging the war in Gaza might be for Biden as he heads into what is expected to be a tightly contested rematch against Donald Trump.
Why there’s debate
Organizers behind the “uncommitted” protest argued that the vote sent a clear message to the president that he risks alienating voters he can’t afford to lose by continuing to stand behind Israel as it carries out what they consider to be a genocide in Gaza. They argue, though, that Biden still has time to win back these voters who otherwise align with him on most issues, if he takes a stand by calling for a permanent ceasefire.
But others say the implications of the “uncommitted” vote are less obvious. They argue that while 100,000 votes could be enough to tip a state like Michigan in a close race, it’s not an overwhelming figure and may even be smaller than the number of pro-Israel Democrats he might turn away if he changed his stance on the war.
Another looming question is how many “uncommitted” voters are willing to go beyond simply making a statement against Biden and actually withhold their support for him when it really counts in November, knowing they could be helping Trump recapture the presidency.
What’s next
Biden has expressed optimism that an agreement on a short-term ceasefire could be reached as soon as next week, but the already tenuous negotiations could be complicated even more amid reports that Israeli forces killed more than 100 Palestinians who were waiting for aid delivery in Gaza on Thursday.
More evidence of how large and widespread Biden’s Gaza problem is will come on Super Tuesday, when eight of the participating states will allow some variation of “uncommitted” voting in their primaries.
Perspectives
Michigan proved that Biden’s support for Israel could cost him the election
“A substantial portion of Michigan Democrats showed him that they weren’t bluffing. Their message was blunt: Biden’s presidency could hang in the balance if he doesn’t pay attention to voters he needs in November.” — John Nichols, the Nation
Biden’s Gaza critics are vocal, but there aren’t that many of them
“There’s one consolation for Democrats: These voters are a small share of the electorate, and it’s hard to see even a huge swing being decisive.” — Nate Cohn, New York Times
We don’t know how many 'uncommitted' votes would really abandon Biden when it counts
“Clearly, if the voters who registered their protest today walk away this fall, it could be decisive. But this was a cost-free vote. In the fall, it will be a choice of much greater consequence.” — David Axelrod, former Obama administration senior adviser, to Wall Street Journal
There’s plenty of time for Biden to change his fortunes if he’s willing to stand up to Israel
“Look — the election is eight months away. Some people saying today that they’ll never vote for Biden will stay true to that word. … But eight months is a long time. If the reality of November is markedly different, Biden can win a substantial number of these voters back. But he needs to do some tough things to make that reality different.” — Michael Tomasky, New Republic
Taking a stand against Israel would hurt his chances even more
“If Biden changes his stances and tone to placate those fuming 100,000 or so voters in Michigan, he risks alienating the much larger pro-Israel portion of the electorate all across the country, including in several crucial swing states. They say, ‘You’ve got to dance with the one that brung ya,’ and Biden defies that axiom at his peril.” — Jim Geraghty, National Review
We shouldn’t overreact, in either direction, to one state’s primary so far from Election Day
“One primary in February will not dictate the results of the general election. And it’s impossible to predict how Biden will fare in a rematch against Trump, who seems an even worse fit for voters of Arab descent after suggesting he’d try to reimpose his Muslim travel ban in a second term. Trump also has his general election liabilities to worry about.” — Stephen Collinson, CNN
There may be nothing Biden can do to win back these voters
“Members of the Arab American and antiwar communities view Biden as complicit in what they say is genocide in Gaza. … If Biden does effect a ceasefire, can the [pro-Palestinan] groups deliver Arab American and antiwar votes for Biden, whom some activists have dubbed ‘Genocide Joe’? I'm not sure they want to.” — Nancy Kaffer, Detroit Free Press
At the very least, pro-Palestine voters have made their voices heard
“It's unlikely Michigan will be where this ends. … You can bet the White House, despite all public pledges to the contrary, will be closely paying attention to them.” — Shirin Ali and Alexander Sammon, Slate
Gaza wouldn’t be such a liability if Biden had done more for young voters on other issues
“It’s no surprise that Biden’s support would have declined since 2020. He was never young people’s preferred candidate. … In the minds of many young Americans (and interest groups), he wasn’t progressive enough, including by not acting boldly enough on student loan cancellation, climate change, and other priorities for the political left.” — Christian Paz, Vox