Will choosing a new speaker end Republican chaos in Congress?
“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.
What’s happening
Last week, a long-simmering civil war in the U.S. House of Representatives between a few hard-right Republicans and the rest of the majority party culminated in the downfall of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was deposed after a mere nine months on the job.
Now House Republicans need to select a new speaker. But will that actually end the infighting that has consumed the GOP ever since the party took control in January? Or will the dysfunction continue no matter who holds the speaker’s gavel?
The process of replacing McCarthy starts Tuesday, when the GOP conference will gather for a closed-door forum to hear from members interested in the position, including current Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a founder of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus. And after previously ruling himself out, McCarthy reversed course Monday and said he would be willing to return in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Voting is scheduled to follow Wednesday.
Why there’s debate
The question is whether anyone can stop the chaos at this point.
Republicans certainly hope so. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, the Florida firebrand who anatagonized McCarthy for months and eventually engineered his ouster, said Thursday that either Jordan or Scalise would “represent a monumental step forward for the Republican conference.”
In the most optimistic scenario for Gaetz and his cohort, someone like Scalise (a longtime conservative currently battling cancer) or Jordan (an even more conservative Trump endorsee currently overseeing the Biden impeachment inquiry) would take over from the glad-handing, establishment-friendly McCarthy, and take an even harder line in legislative negotiations. (MAGA Republicans never trusted McCarthy, who ultimately lost his dream gig because he worked with Democrats to avert a U.S. default and a government shutdown.)
The problem is that Democrats control the Senate and the White House, so no laws can pass without their assent. This means that soon — as soon, in fact, as next month, when McCarthy’s stopgap spending measure expires — his successor will find him- or herself back at square one: either dealing with Democrats to keep the government open or triggering a shutdown over unworkable demands for hundreds of billions of dollars in budget cuts and harsh new immigration policies.
Given what happened to McCarthy — and given the power that Gaetz and a handful of other rebels now wield over the GOP’s narrow majority — many observers expect more pandemonium, not less.
“Things can always get worse,” Brian Riedl, a former aide to Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, told the Washington Post. “The no-compromise fringe has been strongly empowered and essentially has a veto over House Republican policy — which can’t be squared with what Democrats and the White House want.”
What’s next
As important as the actual identity of the next speaker are the rules that govern his or her reign. In order to secure the gavel, McCarthy agreed to allow any one member to force a House-wide no-confidence vote in the speaker at any time (which is known as “a motion to vacate”). That’s how Gaetz ultimately toppled him.
It’s possible the next speaker could move to abolish that tool. Either way, the current Republican majority is so slim that the party can afford to lose only four votes on any given measure (assuming all Democrats vote in opposition). As a result, fringe figures like Gaetz will retain tremendous leverage — as could moderates, if they were to band together.
Wednesday’s vote will test this dynamic. To win the speakership, a candidate first needs to secure a majority of the 221-member House GOP conference in a secret-ballot election, followed by a majority of the full House.
But one moderate Republican has already told Axios that Jordan is a nonstarter for roughly 15 to 20 other moderates, which is easily enough to sink the Ohioan’s bid. It took McCarthy several days and 15 rounds of balloting to secure the gavel in January. This week’s sequel could be even more exhausting — as could the drama that comes after it.
Perspectives
Electing a new speaker won’t suddenly change reality
“While we have had our disagreements with McCarthy, the reality is that he was attempting to govern with a historically slim and fractious House majority and with Democrats in control of the Senate and the White House. Refusing to raise the debt ceiling or fund the government indefinitely — even if either was politically sustainable — was never going to balance the budget or seal the border with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Biden in power. [So] electing a new speaker won’t suddenly change the math in the House, the reality of life under divided government — or the inherent difficulties of dealing with a caucus where the likes of Matt Gaetz holds inordinate power.” — Editors, National Review
Even Jim Jordan wouldn’t be able to escape the McCarthy trap
“Upon assuming the speakership, would Jordan cease being the insurgency and suddenly begin worrying about making sure his caucus funds the government and raises the debt ceiling? Or would he take a hardline stance on budget cuts and other positions that are frankly unattainable in a world where Democrats control the presidency and the U.S. Senate — leading to shutdowns, defaults, and other disastrous outcomes? In making this decision, Jordan would likely face a sort of Catch-22. He either lives long enough to become the villain (the establishment), or he becomes a disastrously bad and ineffective speaker.” — Matt Lewis, The Daily Beast
Why? Because Gaetz and the far-right are just doing the bidding of GOP base voters…
“Fears of being displaced in a changing America ... have created the cycle in which the pressure on Republican congressional leaders perpetually pushes them toward harsher tactics and more aggressive policies. Former Republican Representative Tom Davis, who chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee, notes that the hard-liners who deposed McCarthy are accurately reflecting the views of their own voters. ‘It’s frustration and anger at Washington, and we are going to throw sand in the wheels at whatever they are going to do there. ... That’s the level of anger out there in these districts. Blame it on members, but voters elected these folks.’” — Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic
… and responding to the political incentives of the day
“Long gone are the carrots and sticks that traditionally helped party leaders shepherd their flocks, like fund-raising help from national committees or plum committee assignments.
Instead, the way to rise as a Republican is, one, to display unbending devotion to Mr. Trump and then, two, to embrace some mix of relentless self-promotion, militant opposition to Democrats and a willingness to burn the federal government to the ground — even if it means taking the party down, too.” — Michael C. Bender, New York Times
So expect a contentious speaker vote this week…
“Expectations are at rock-bottom among House Republicans that their civil war will be resolved by the speaker vote on Wednesday. ... Some moderates are threatening to tank any speaker if the rules aren’t changed to protect future speakers from single-member motions to vacate. That’s a deal breaker for conservatives. Some conservatives are threatening to tank any speaker who’d support aid for Ukraine, or who wouldn’t push along an impeachment vote on President Biden. That’s a deal breaker for some moderates. And some Republicans just have old scores to settle.” — Juliegrace Brufke, Axios
… and a big fight over Ukraine funding
“[McCarthy] claims to be a strong supporter of Ukraine’s, but, faced with rising opposition to continued financial support for Ukraine within his conference — again, fuelled by Trump — he stripped out the Ukraine dollars that were in the continuing resolution proposed by the Senate to avert the shutdown. He also refused to act on a supplemental appropriation of twenty-four billion dollars for Ukraine that the Biden Administration sent to Congress in August. Is a new Speaker really going to want to confront the rebels right away by going to bat for Ukraine? It’s all part of the McCarthy mess. And don’t believe anyone who says it will be easy to clean up.” — Susan B. Glasser, The New Yorker
