XFL betting, odds: How playoff implications shape this week's wagers
Week 8 of the XFL provided us with a few firsts. We saw the XFL's overtime format in action for the first time (twice), and it was also the first time totals climbed over an average of 42 points at close. Not coincidentally, 75% of the games went under the closing total as well.
We also got more clarity on the playoff picture as the DC Defenders and Houston Roughnecks secured postseason spots with wins last weekend. On the other side of the spectrum, a disappointing 18-16 loss ended the Orlando Guardians' playoff hopes. As a result, Orlando joins the Vegas Vipers as teams that will be playing spoiler roles the rest of the way.
By next week, all four playoff spots could be secured, something that will surely add a little guesswork regarding rest and motivation for our Week 10 wagers. Of course, in the world of sports betting, looking ahead leads to losses, so let's stick to what's in front of us and target some Week 9 winners.
Vegas Vipers +6.5 at Houston Roughnecks (O/U 43.5)
The Vipers are really good at finding ways to lose games, with head coach Rod Woodson learning on the fly in his first year. That said, I am not in the business of laying 6.5 points with a team that can't move the ball. Houston's air raid hasn't been off the runway for two straight weeks. It averaged an embarrassing 3.2 yards per play last week against San Antonio and wasn't much better the previous week either (3.9). The Vipers' offense is much more explosive, with Jalan McClendon under center. The 356 yards they gained against the Battlehawks' defense was the most allowed in a single game by St. Louis all season. Both teams faced San Antonio in the last two weeks, and while Vegas was +1.7 in net yards per play, Houston was negative (-0.7) despite squeaking out an overtime win. Dogs of 5.5 or more are 5-0 since Week 5, and the Roughnecks don't have the firepower to cover this number. The bet: Vegas +6.5
Orlando Guardians +1.5 at San Antonio Brahmas (O/U 39)
Remember how bad I said the Houston offense has been? Well, San Antonio wasn't able to outscore it. Will we get a Paxton Lynch revenge game? The former Guardians quarterback has to be in consideration to start for San Antonio after Jack Coan's two interceptions last week. Lynch's habit of holding on to the football too long led to him taking too many sacks in Orlando, so sticking behind the league's worst offensive line can't end well. Orlando proved it wasn't ready for the favorite role last week (five turnovers), but the spoiler role as a short dog fits it like a glove. However, my strongest position is on the total. San Antonio unders have hit in six straight weeks with an average closing total of 37. So let's keep riding until the wheels fall off. The bet: Under 39
Arlington Renegades +8.5 at DC Defenders (O/U 41.5)
Adapt or die. We made a lot of money fading Bob Stoops this season, especially early on. The Renegades failed to cover the first four weeks but have been a respectable 2-2 ATS since. You have to pick your spots, and this week is one of them. This isn't about Arlington as much as it is about DC. The Defenders are clearly the best team in the league, and the rightful favorite to win it all in the futures market (+160). But they are doing it with the best offense in the league, and you have to get stops to cover this large of a number. Orlando is the only team in the XFL that has been a dog of 7 points or more and is 3-1 ATS in those games. Now, Arlington joins the club against a Defenders defense that allowed an average of 32 points over the last three weeks. The Renegades' offense looked functional for the first time all season last week with Luis Perez at the helm. Arlington is the side, but this is another game where the best bet is the total. If we are expecting a decent output for Arlington offensively, you know DC can carry this over the total. The Defenders are 7-1 to the over this season, hitting in each of the last six games. The bet: Over 41.5
Seattle Sea Dragons +1 at St. Louis Battlehawks (O/U 46)
This is the biggest game of the weekend with the most playoff implications. The North Division is the home of the league's three best teams, but only two will qualify for the postseason. The Battlehawks, who continue to break their own attendance records with each home game, will look to pack 45,000 St. Louis faithful into the dome on Sunday night. If St. Louis can slay the Sea Dragons for the second time this season, it will clinch the North's final playoff spot.
That's going to be easier said than done. Seattle went blow for blow in a 1-point loss to DC last week and has done a great job cleaning up the turnovers that haunted it early this season. St. Louis struggles in the trenches, and I'm concerned about its ability to protect QB A.J. McCarron, who missed last week with an injured shoulder. Seattle still leads the XFL in net yards per play (1.1) and has not allowed Ben DiNucci to get sacked more than twice in any game this season. I see the Sea Dragons' defense forcing more negative plays, so I'm backing Seattle in a close one. The bet: Seattle +1
