XFL betting, odds: Let's trust Wade Phillips in the South Division title game
The XFL playoffs start Saturday as the Arlington Renegades (4-6) travel to Houston in the South Division title game. The Houston Roughnecks (7-3) swept the season series with a 9-point win in Week 2, followed by a 16-point victory in last week's regular-season finale. Unfortunately, a San Antonio loss before kickoff robbed the game of any playoff implications, so we saw both teams sit some key starters. However, it was clear both teams were playing to win, and there are plenty of takeaways we can carry over into this game. So, can the third time be a charm for Arlington? Or will the Renegades continue to come up short? Let's dive into the matchup between two of the XFL's most recognizable coaches in Wade Phillips and Bob Stoops.
Arlington Renegades +6 at Houston Roughnecks (O/U 41.5)
Is there one more spot left in the XFL season where we can fade Stoops and Arlington? You bet there is. The Renegades were by far the most overrated team in the XFL. They failed to cover the first four weeks of the season and finished with the league's worst record ATS (3-7). Every year during the NFL playoffs, you will hear it repeated that it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season. Bettors know that's simply not true, especially when one team is flat-out better on both sides of the ball. That's what we have here with the Roughnecks and Renegades. Last week's game may not have featured all the starters, but two things stuck out that will play a big role in this game.
The Roughnecks moved the ball at will with backup QB Cole McDonald, while Arlington's offense was a disaster with starting QB Luis Perez. I had high hopes for Arlington after the acquisition of Perez, but the Roughnecks kept Stoops' offense out of the end zone in a 25-9 win. The Renegades had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line before the half and had to settle for one of their three field goals after failing to punch it in.
Arlington had no answers on defense for Roughnecks running back Jeremy Cox, who ran for 120 yards and a touchdown. Cox, who recently signed with the team, provided Houston's running game with the burst it lacked during the season. Houston averaged 6.8 yards per play last week and had eight rushing first downs. It's hard to imagine Houston not having even more offensive success with starting QB Brandon Silvers back in the lineup.
I bet Houston to cover the big number. They are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this year and have covered two out of three times when favored by 5.5 points or more. It is the better team on both sides of the ball and has a playmaking defense that leads the XFL in sacks (35) and defensive touchdowns (5). My money is on Phillips having the defense dialed in, and the Roughnecks covering this number. The bet: Houston -6
