The Tory ministers and 'big beasts' who could lose MP seats in the election

Several big names in the Conservative Party are at risk of losing their seats in the general election.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a visit to Sizewell in Suffolk, while on the General Election campaign trail. Picture date: Wednesday June 19, 2024.
Rishi Sunak could be the first prime minister to lose his seat in a general election. (PA)

Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister to lose his seat in a general election, according to new bombshell polling.

According to the Savanta poll, which was commissioned by The Telegraph, the Conservatives are projected to win just 53 seats in the general election. Some three-quarters of the Cabinet would lose their seats in that scenario – including Sunak.

Were Sunak to lose his seat in Richmond (Yorks), it would make him the first prime minister in history to lose their seat in a general election, according to the Institute for Government. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also facing a battle to hold on to his constituency, with the vote on a “knife edge”.

Savanta spoke to around 18,000 people between 7 June and 18 June for their poll. If reflected in the election, Labour would be on course to win 516 seats, with a commanding Commons majority of 382. The Liberal Democrats would have nearly as many seats (50) as the Tories.

Jeremy Hunt: My constituency is on a knife edge

Hunt could be among the Conservative casualties on the night of the 4 July poll, despite his newly-created seat in Godalming and Ash currently holding a Conservative majority of more than 10,000. He is facing a battle to win the seat in Surrey, with the Liberal Democrats keen on taking a high-profile scalp.

Several other Tory ‘big beasts’ also face a tight vote to hold onto their seat, according to a major poll by Ipsos.

Britain's Defence Secretary Grant Shapps arrives prior to the King's Birthday Parade,
Defence secretary Grant Shapps may lose his seat in the election. (Getty)

Defence secretary Grant Shapps, who had been touted as a potential leader of the Conservatives after the election, is at risk of losing his Welwyn Hatfield seat, according to Ipsos. Their polling suggests a likely Labour victory, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party currently on 48%, compared to 28% for the Conservatives.

Shapps won the seat in the 2019 election with a vote share of 52.6%, increasing his majority from the previous election.

London, UK. 07 Jun 2024. Penny Mordaunt - Leader of the House of Commons, Lord President of the Council arrives at BBC Broadcasting House for the first election debate. Credit: Justin Ng/Alamy Live News
Penny Mordaunt’s seat is at risk from Labour. (PA)

Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons, is another Tory MP whose name has been mentioned in a future leadership contest – in the event of the Tories losing the election. However, she may not even be an MP after 4 July as her Portsmouth North seat is at risk.

Seen as “leaning Labour”, polling suggests Labour are on 42%, compared to the Tories on 34%. She won 61.4% of the vote in the 2019 election.

Oxon Hill, United States. 22nd Feb, 2024. Liz Truss, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, makes remarks at the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, US, on Thursday, February 22, 2024. Credit: Ron Sachs /CNP/AdMedia/Newscom/Alamy Live News
Former prime minister Liz Truss may not be an MP after the election. (PA)

Former prime minister Liz Truss is at risk in her South West Norfolk seat. The seat is seen as a “toss up”, with Truss currently in the lead at 31%. Labour are a sitting at 27% but Reform UK are polling 30%.

Allowing for margins of error and another two weeks of campaigning, the seat will be hotly contested between all three parties on 4 July.

File photo dated 06/02/24 of Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg during the launch of the Popular Conservatism movement at the Emmanuel Centre in central London. Protesters who hounded Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg after he spoke at Cardiff University have been criticised for their
Jacob Rees-Mogg is on track to lose his seat at the general election. (PA)

While no longer a government minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg losing his North East Somerset and Hanham seat would perhaps be one of the night’s bigger surprises. Rees-Mogg has been an outspoken critic of some of Sunak’s policies and is a regular presenter on GB News.

However, the Ipsos poll has the seat, which has been newly-created for the 2024 election, is currently showing a “likely Labour” win, with the party on 47%, compared to 30% for the Conservatives.

London, UK. 14th May, 2024. Ministers in Whitehall, Johnny Mercer, Veterans Minister Credit: Ian Davidson/Alamy Live News
Polling suggests Johnny Mercer will lose his seat to Labour at the election. (PA)

Veterans’ affairs secretary Johnny Mercer is standing for the Plymouth Moor View seat, having last won the seat in 2019 with an increased vote share of 60.7%. However, a “likely” Labour win is expected, with a projected vote share of 49% on 4 July. The Tories are currently polling at 30% – half of what they won in 2019.

Victoria Prentis, MP, Attorney General. Ministers at 10 Downing Street in Westminster, London, England.
Attorney general Victoria Prentis is currently facing being replaced by Labour in the election. (PA)

A “likely” Labour victory is predicted for Banbury, a seat currently held by attorney general Victoria Prentis. The Tories are polling at 30% in the constituency, compared to 40% for Labour. Prentis is notable for being the first British MP to take a Ukrainian refugee in her house following Russia’s invasion.

London, UK. 22nd May, 2024. Alex Chalk, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, arrives at a cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street London. Credit: Ian Davidson/Alamy Live News
The Libreal Democrats are projected to take over justice secretary Alex Chalk’s seat. (Alamy)

Justice secretary Alex Chalk won 48% of the vote in the Cheltenham constituency in the 2019 election. However, the seat is now leaning to being “strong Liberal Democrat”, with Sir Ed Davey’s party polling 60% of the vote. Chalk and the Conservatives are projected to win 26% of the vote, according to Ipsos.

London, UK. 16th Apr, 2024. Ministers and officials in Westminster London David TC Davies, Welsh Secretary, UK Credit: Ian Davidson/Alamy Live News
David TC Davies is projected to lose his seat in the general election. (PA)

Welsh secretary David TC Davies is facing a “likely” Labour victory on 4 July, with the party projected to win 45% of the vote, compared to 30% for the Tories. The constituency has predominately been held by the Tories, with Davies himself representing the seat since 2005.

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