NFL line movement: Patriots among week's big movers

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Happy Thanksgiving! The NFL week gets started on Thursday with three games to celebrate the holiday. Of course, we have our usual Sunday slate and then finish things up on Monday night. This week is a big week for football betting as there are games all across the extended weekend with both college football and the NFL.

Nine road teams won straight up last week and unders have been hitting at a high rate. Underdogs have been a good bet for most of the season, but they weren't profitable last week. What's the consensus across the market as we head into Week 12?

Massive support in favor of New England

On Sunday afternoon, the New England Patriots were just 3-point favorites for this upcoming week against the Tennessee Titans. Now? New England is laying 6.5 points against the Titans.

New England has been extremely impressive in recent weeks, winning five straight games. Its defense has perplexed quarterbacks such as Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan. The offense led by rookie Mac Jones has been moving the ball and scoring more than enough to win games.

Atlanta, GA - November 18: New England Patriots QB Mac Jones pumping up his fans before the game. The New England Patriots visit the Atlanta Falcons in a regular season NFL game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA on Nov. 18, 2021. (Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Mac Jones and the Patriots have been lining people's pockets lately. (Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

In its last three games, New England has outscored its opponents 94 to 13. It's given up just one touchdown over that time. 

I'm sure bettors watched Ryan Tannehill throw four interceptions against Houston and salivated at what this Patriots defense could do to the Titans. Tennessee's offense has not been able to overcome the loss of Derrick Henry. This sure looks like another spot where the Patriots' defense can dominate.

No more belief in the Seahawks

When Russell Wilson returned from injury two weeks ago against Green Bay, there were people in the football world who thought the Seahawks could go on a run and compete for a playoff berth in the NFC.

Two weeks later, those thoughts seem distant. Wilson has not been good since his return, completing just 51% of his passes, averaging 184 yards per game. He has zero touchdown passes and two interceptions. 

When the market opened during the games on Sunday, the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites for this upcoming weekend against Washington. As the week has progressed, the Football Team has become a 1-point favorite over Seattle.

It seems like we're reaching a point where things have to change in Seattle between Wilson, Pete Carroll and the organization. It doesn't feel like they're primed to make anything of this season. Meanwhile, Washington has won back-to-back games and has played well for a few weeks now. 

Thanksgiving movement

There are three games on the slate for Thanksgiving and all three have seen some line movement heading into kickoff.

Chargers, Bengals, Browns other popular sides

The Los Angeles Chargers opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the Denver Broncos. However, as the market has gotten going, the Chargers are now laying 3 points against Denver. Denver is coming off a bye, while the Chargers nearly blew a three-score lead in the fourth quarter against Pittsburgh. 

Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming off an impressive performance against the Raiders. The Bengals are currently 4.5-point favorites against the Steelers. Pittsburgh opened as just a 3.5-point underdog, but it seems like market consensus favors the Bengals.

One of the more interesting movements has been in the Cleveland-Baltimore game. The Browns opened as a 4.5-point road underdog in Baltimore. It has not been pretty for the Browns on offense, and their defense has been leaky, as well. Baker Mayfield is dealing with multiple injuries and has rarely been effective this season. Despite that, the Browns are now just 3.5-point underdogs.

Key number movement

Not every line movement is equal. Movement around key numbers such as 3 and 7 are much more impactful. Which games are seeing movement around key numbers?

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