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In a year, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has changed the perception of him as a player.
Some liked Allen's potential to improve last season, but he smashed pretty much everyone's expectations. Allen was likely the NFL's most improved player, and by the end of the season he was an MVP candidate.
The Bills are back as Super Bowl contenders, and Allen is an interesting MVP pick. Of course, that also means his player props at BetMGM are sky high.
Josh Allen among NFL's elite
Allen's total for passing yards at BetMGM is 4,550.5, and his passing touchdown total is 34.5.
Last season, Allen posted 4,544 passing yards and 37 touchdowns. That did come in nearly perfect conditions, however. Stefon Diggs had a phenomenal year, and stayed healthy. Most of the Bills offense had a relatively healthy season. The Bills went heavy on the pass, even though they were 13-3 and most teams that win a lot run more in the second halves of games. Opponents might not have been prepared for the new-and-improved Allen, who was among the NFL leaders in passing attempts.
When you are betting the over on 4,550.5 yards or 34.5 passing touchdowns, there's very little room for error. If opponents adjust, the Bills want to be more balanced, there are a few more injuries or Allen's play slips a bit after a huge spike in completion percentage, those totals are going under. However, while there are obvious risks, I don't have a problem taking the over for Allen.
There's no reason for the Bills to scale back Allen's usage. They found a formula that worked and still don't have a running back who should command more touches. The best offense the Bills have is throwing often on early downs. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is back after not getting a head-coaching job, so the philosophy shouldn't change. The Bills even added to the passing game, picking up receiver Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. This is a modern NFL offense that understands that being pass-happy can be very effective if you have a good quarterback. And the Bills do have a good quarterback. Add on a 17th game and Allen's totals don't look that crazy.
When you take any over, there's risk involved and most of it has to do with injury. Other than that, Allen should stay near the same level he was at a year ago. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he replicates his 2020 and wins an MVP. A lot has changed with Allen in the past year, including much higher expectations.
Previous BetMGM player prop breakdowns
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